40 years ago, he predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse in ten years. 20 years later, he predicted that the United States would collapse in 2025.

He founded the Oslo International Peace Research Institute and launched the Journal of Peace Research in 1964. In 1980, he predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse 11 years later, a prediction that was confirmed on December 25, 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed.

In 2000, he proposed that the United States would collapse in 2025, and elaborated on his views in his book "The Collapse of the American Empire" published in 2009.

He believes that the United States has 15 major problems in many fields such as economy, military, politics and culture, which will make it impossible for the country to continue to maintain its current status. He pointed out that the US population only accounts for 6% of the world's population, but consumes more than 35% of the resources. This imbalance will sooner or later make it unable to sustain.

However, judging from the current situation, although the United States is facing many troubles, it is not on the brink of collapse.

Forecast data for March 2025 shows that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.6%, with the unemployment rate around 4%, and the consumer and technology industries still supporting the overall situation.

Politically, the two parties quarreled fiercely, but the entire institutional framework had not collapsed. Socially, racial conflicts occurred from time to time, but they had not shaken the foundation of the country.

Chinese experts believe that the United States has a strong foundation. The status of the dollar, Silicon Valley's innovation capabilities and military alliances prevent it from falling easily.

Galton’s analysis makes sense, but the possibility of a U.S. collapse in 2025 does not seem high. China, on its part, is improving its own capabilities through the Belt and Road Initiative and other means to prepare for future changes.

Johan Galtung was born in Oslo, Norway in 1930. As a child, he witnessed the difficult years of the German invasion of Norway during World War II, an experience that gave him a keen interest in peace and conflict issues.

In 1959, he founded the Oslo International Peace Research Institute (PRIO), becoming a global pioneer in the field of peace research. In 1964, he founded the Journal of Peace Research, providing an important communication platform for this field.

In 1969, he was hired by the University of Oslo as the world's first professor of peace and conflict studies, and he remained there until he resigned in 1977. Later, he taught at several schools, including the University of Hawaii, and continued his research on peace issues.

Galton has a long academic career, and his research focuses on how to understand and resolve conflicts. He is not only a scholar, but also pays special attention to applying theory to practice. His experience and ideas have influenced many people and made him famous internationally.

In 1980, Galtung said at an international conference that the Soviet Union would disintegrate in 11 years. At that time, the Soviet Union was still a major giant in the Cold War, with a strong military and no major economic problems on the surface. But Galtung did not see it that way.

He carefully studied the Soviet Union's economic structure and ethnic issues and found that it put all its resources into heavy industry, while agriculture and light industry were neglected, with serious uneven distribution. He felt that such internal problems plus external pressure would make this multi-ethnic country unable to survive.

As a result, on December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union really collapsed, and his prediction became a reality.

In the Chinese academic circle, Galton's analysis has been discussed by many people.

Everyone thinks that he saw the underlying reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union, and this line of thinking is of reference value to the rising China. For example, how to balance development and how to deal with internal contradictions are all areas worth thinking about.

In 2000, Galtung, who was already in his 70s, put forward another bold view: the United States would collapse as an empire in 2025.

In 2009, he made this idea clearer in his book The Collapse of the American Empire, in which he listed 15 major problems facing the United States, covering economic, military, political and cultural aspects.

He believes that the US economy is too dependent on financial speculation. In 2023, the national debt has exceeded 33 trillion US dollars, but the real industry is becoming increasingly empty. Militarily, it intervenes everywhere in the world, the cost is frighteningly high, and its allies are gradually alienated. For example, the chaos during the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is very telling.

Politically, the two parties are fighting each other, and the 2020 Capitol Hill riots showed how chaotic governance is; culturally, constant racial conflicts, such as the 2020 protests in Minneapolis, have weakened the United States' international image.

Galton's core view is that the US population accounts for only 6% of the world's population, but it consumes more than 35% of the world's resources. This model cannot last long. In 2009, he once changed the collapse time to 2020, but later insisted that 2025 was the main time point.

This prediction has caused a lot of controversy. Chinese scholars feel that some of the problems he mentioned do exist, but the conclusion may be too pessimistic.

From China's perspective, Galton's prediction provides us with a way to observe the decline of the United States, but the specific timing remains to be considered. By March 2025, although the US economy is under pressure, it has not yet reached the point of collapse.

The unemployment rate will be around 4% in 2024, with consumption and technology still driving growth. However, the national debt is alarmingly high and trade policies are unstable, so there are certainly risks.

For example, after Trump came to power, he imposed a 20% tariff on China. In 2024, China's exports started to pick up ahead of schedule, and the trade surplus was close to US$1 trillion (approximately US$18.42 trillion), which shows that our economic resilience is not weak.

Chinese experts believe that the US still has a solid foundation. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, Silicon Valley's innovation capabilities are beyond doubt, and its military alliance network is still supporting it. Politically, although the two parties have big differences, there is still room for adjustment in the system itself.

Socially, racial conflicts are annoying, but they have not yet reached the point of shaking the foundation. Therefore, Galton's prediction makes sense, but the possibility of the collapse of the United States in 2025 is not high. We must continue to improve our strength and make various preparations.

Looking at the US economy, the forecast data for 2025 is not too bad. GDP growth is expected to be around 2.6%, with consumption and technology industries being the main players. The unemployment rate of 4% is not high, indicating that employment is relatively stable. However, the national debt problem is a hidden danger, and the figure of 33 trillion US dollars is worrying.

In terms of trade policy, if tariffs continue to increase, there may be more uncertainty. For China, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. We have strong export capabilities and a complete industrial chain, and we can find a way out under pressure.

In terms of military, the US's global deployment is indeed very expensive. When it withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, it was in chaos, and its allies' trust in it was also discounted. But it still has military alliances like NATO, so it will not collapse easily in the short term.

Politically, the two parties may quarrel, but the institutional framework has not fallen apart. Although the 2020 Capitol Hill riots were serious, the United States later stabilized the situation.

When it comes to social issues, racial conflict is a long-standing problem. The incident in Minneapolis in 2020 is just the tip of the iceberg, but it has not yet gotten out of control.

From China's perspective, Galton's analysis is inspiring, but we cannot believe it completely. The United States has its resilience, and we should not underestimate it. However, this does not mean that we should relax our vigilance.

On the contrary, we must seize the opportunity to make ourselves stronger through the "Belt and Road Initiative" and technological self-reliance. In this way, no matter what the United States does in the future, we will be invincible.