Will the Tariff War Trigger the Next Great Depression? The 'Doomsday Asset' List from Lessons of Blood and Tears

Introduction: The Collision between Historical Ghosts and Reality

In 1930, the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act ignited a global trade war, which directly led to the collapse of international trade and the soaring of the unemployment rate to 25%, ultimately triggering the Great Depression. Nearly a hundred years later, in 2025, the Trump administration restarted a 25% vehicle tariff, targeting China's industrial chain. Canada threatened a "power cut counterattack", reigniting the global trade powder keg once again.

Core Issue: Will history repeat itself? If the Great Depression descends, how can ordinary people use assets as a "Noah's Ark" to survive against all odds?

I. How Did the Tariff War Ignite the Great Depression? Two Fatal Logic Chains

​1. Supply Chain Collapse: From "Efficiency First" to "Mutual Poisoning"

​Case Study: The U.S. imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, leading to:

Tesla's Shanghai factory cutting 50% of its workforce.

German battery suppliers forced to sell inventory at a loss.

The global new energy supply chain evaporating $200 billion in just one week.

​Logic Chain: High tariffs → Soaring corporate costs → Layoffs to cut expenses → Consumption shrinks → Economy spirals into recession.

​2. Currency War: From "Tariff War" to "Exchange Rate War"

​2025 New Script: After U.S. tariffs, the RMB was forced to devalue by 5% to offset export losses. The Bank of Japan sold U.S. Treasuries to stabilize its currency, shaking the U.S. dollar's credit system. Global capital plunged into a "chaotic era."

​Data: The Bank for International Settlements warned that if G20 countries collectively devalue their currencies, global inflation could soar to 15%, reigniting the 1929 "debt-deflation" death spiral.

​II. The "Doomsday Scenario" of the Great Depression: What Signals Should You Fear?

​1. Economic Indicators: The "Death Cross"

​Current Data:

U.S. Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 6 consecutive months.

Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to 2008 levels.

German factory orders fell by 22% year-on-year.

​Threshold: If global trade volume shrinks by more than 15% (currently at 8%), the countdown to a Great Depression begins.

​2. Social Mood: The "Darkening" of Society

​Phenomena:

Japan's "society of withdrawal" (hikikomori) grew by 3 million.

U.S. Gen Z hoards canned food and firearms.

Pinduoduo's cheap, unbranded goods saw a 200% surge in sales—indicating a clear decline in grassroots consumption.

​III. Doomsday Asset Checklist: The Logic Behind 5 Asset Classes That May Thrive

​1. Gold + Silver: The "Physical Anchors" in Chaos

​Counterintuitive Truth: During the 1933 Great Depression, the U.S. government banned private gold ownership. But in the 2025 era of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), gold has become an "illegal hard currency."

​Action Plan:

​Physical Gold: Avoid bank safety deposit boxes (risk of freezing); opt for private vaults in Switzerland.

​Gold Mining Stocks: Giants like Newmont Mining see profit elasticity of up to 300% during gold price surges.

​2. Core Agricultural Land: The Ultimate "Survival Card"

​Case Study: During the 2023 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's black soil prices rose 40%, and German investors scrambled for Brazilian farmland.

​Strategies:

​Developed Countries: Target irrigated regions in the U.S. Midwest and Australia; avoid policy-restricted areas.

​Emerging Markets: Use offshore companies to hold Southeast Asian farmland to mitigate government expropriation risks.

​3. Arms & Security Industry: Surging Demand for "Violence"

​Data: During the Great Depression, U.S. firearm sales surged by 200%. In 2025, California's home security equipment purchases doubled year-on-year.

​Targets:

​Military ETFs: For example, ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF), with key holdings like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon monopolizing NATO orders.

​Non-Lethal Weapons: Taser International's stock price surged 78% annually.

​4. Funeral & Healthcare Necessities: "Death" as a Profitable Business

​Counter-Cyclical Logic: In the 1930s, U.S. funeral homes achieved profit margins of 35%. By 2025, aging populations and economic recession will drive up "death costs."

​Targets:

​Funeral Giants: Service Corporation International (SCI) dominates 45% of the U.S. market, with a dividend yield of 4.2%.

​Affordable Healthcare: Walmart's clinic business revenue grew by 30%, and cheap insulin manufacturers' stocks remain resilient.

​5. Cryptocurrencies: The "Underground Gold" of the Digital Age

Cryptocurrencies may emerge as a store of value in the digital era, akin to "black gold" during times of monetary instability.

​IV. Counterintuitive Hedging: Shorting "Pseudo-Safe Assets"

​1. The Bond Trap: Governments May "Default"

​Risk: If U.S. debt-to-GDP exceeds 150% (currently at 130%), the risk of Treasury default will skyrocket. Holding U.S. Treasuries could become a "noose."

​Hedging Tools:

Buy Treasury Credit Default Swaps (CDS).

Short long-term Treasury ETFs (e.g., TLT).

​2. Core Real Estate Bubble: Even First-Tier Cities May Collapse

​Case Study: In 1929, luxury homes around New York's Central Park saw prices halve. In 2023, Toronto's downtown apartment vacancy rate surged to 20%.

​Countermeasures:

Buy real estate volatility index derivatives (e.g., U.S. HVI). Short commercial real estate REITs.

Conclusion: Searching for Certainty in the Doomsday Clock

The essence of a Great Depression lies in the collapse of old orders and the reshuffling of power. For ordinary people, the key to survival lies in holding:

​**"Indestructible Assets"**: Land, gold, and arms.

​**"Hard Currencies of the New Rules"**: Cryptocurrencies and healthcare resources.

Remember: When supermarket shelves are empty, a bag of rice is worth far more than Warren Buffett's stocks.