I Take It All Back

I see the bad moon a-risin'

I see trouble on the way

– Creedence Clearwater Revival, "Bad Moon Rising"

In "A Revelation," I gave a sweeping vision of the future and how I saw myself fitting into that world as an author.

And then, well… the world changed a good bit overnight. Or it’s about to, anyway.

This isn’t a post about my reaction to that seismic shift or what I think is going to happen to my home country at large.

But this article is about why I’m reversing course so suddenly.

TLDR: I predict the U.S. economy is about to go into tumult, and the world economy with it. And by consequence, the publishing market is about to get tough.

An Author’s Economic Forecast

I’m not an economist. But I have studied economic theory enough to know the market does not react well to shocks and sudden shifts. And while Donald Trump is a lot of things, he is undeniably a sledgehammer to the status quo and conventional supply-side economics.

Some view that as a good thing. It’s part of why they voted for him.

But personal feelings aside, here’s my most objective take on the effect of some of his larger policy initiatives:

Deporting illegal immigrants inevitably means losing cheap labor that many farmers rely on to harvest their fruit and vegetable crops. It’s unclear how that would be replaced without paying far more for the same number of farmhands.

In our free-trade global society, the cost of tariffs are almost invariably passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Especially in a post-industrial economy like ours where very little is produced within our borders. And even products assembled in the U.S. usually rely on imported components.

Higher grocery prices and higher consumer good prices.

When prices outpace wages, consumers cut back spending on anything deemed non-essential as a survival tactic.

One of the easiest expense groups to cut? Entertainment.

Including books.

Now, maybe those two policies are enacted in nuanced ways that mean we aren’t dunked into the freezing lake all at once and the market can adjust without undue disruption.

Maybe the expected tax cuts help offset some of those price increases.

Either way, uncertainty breeds caution, and I can’t be the only one that is preparing to hunker down for the foreseeable future.

I know that the U.S. economy is not the world economy, but what happens here inevitably has ripple effects. We saw it firsthand in 2008.

And when prices outpace wages and consumers cut back spending, a recession is almost guaranteed.

The Economics of Publishing

All to say, the coming months to years are likely not a great time to be an unknown independent author trying to convince those same consumers now more concerned than ever about keeping food on the table and paying rent or a mortgage to take some of those precious dollars and buy his thriller novel.

Hell, it wasn’t exactly easy this past year, either, when more folks felt like they had dollars to spare (though certainly many were struggling before this new administration).

Does this mean I’m abandoning my current series? No, the Dick Winchester Adventures will be completed. If for no other reason than to not screw over those readers who have already boarded the train and will stick around for the ending.

But I’m not expecting the near future to be kind for the self-publishing industry.

Hell, I’m not expecting the near future to be kind for the publishing industry at large, but especially those less financially solid than the big publishing houses and media conglomerates.

Across the board, I expect independent publishing to take a hammering as the same tightening budgets mean publications that already struggled to attract readers and subscribers find their already modest revenue streams drying up.

So what does that all mean?

Even now, I go back through my short story submission tracker and find old submissions that I never heard back about. Around 30% of the time, a quick check of the publication’s website confirms the reason:

They’re no longer in business.

I only expect this trend to increase in the coming months.

Less publications. Less paid submission opportunities. Less paid contests.

After all, the forces that already challenged these purveyors of print haven’t gone anywhere: the proliferation of free content, the decline in reading in favor of more engaging or interactive forms of media.

Trends that will only exacerbate these publications’ struggles for survival in a less friendly economic climate when even existing subscribers may be pulling out to save a few more dollars a month.

So what does any of this have to do with me and Vocal?

Seven Challenges = Seven Opportunities

I was not alone in balking at the number of new challenges released last week. I even scoffed at some of the prompts.

Gratitude, when my whole world just turned upside down? Get bent.

But now, a week later with a far clearer head, I can see that was a short-sighted overreaction. Here’s a golden opportunity to pay a simple $9.99 for one month of Vocal+ and enter seven more challenges. If I get Runner Up just once, it’s paid for itself. If I get multiple Runner Ups or—dare I say it—a full-on win, that’s gravy.

Money that can help push the independent publishing train to its final stop at Dick Winchester Book 3 Station.

Another point in "A Revelation" is that I was tired of writing stories for challenges that demanded I create full works based on them. I didn’t want any more obligations. Especially since independent publishing is not cheap—at least the way I do it.

All that’s on the backburner now. I might build out those manuscripts, maybe even send them to some traditional publishers—though those odds are going to get longer just as everything else gets tougher. But I am certainly not publishing them myself until I see some sort of proof that my prediction hasn’t come to pass.

In which case, hooray! I don’t want to see a market downturn, both for my own personal finances and for all those less financially secure who would suffer. Plus, there’s some magazines and editors I love working with, and it would be a real loss to the independent publishing community if they had to give it up. I am more than happy to see my prediction proven wrong.

But, again, separating my emotions from my thought process as much as possible, it is what I foresee.

So don’t be confused when you see challenge entry after challenge entry from me in the coming days. Don’t read between the lines hoping to find the sarcasm I might have injected past entries with. Those were written from a place of comfort, of belief in a stable path forward.

Now I don’t know what the hell to expect. This article is my best guess.

And now I owe it to myself to take every challenge seriously and make a serious attempt at each one.

At worst, I’ve lost $10 (though a Top Story or two gets us into friendlier territory).

At best, I’ve gained $3,500.

And if the best-case scenario plays out, I’m putting all my money into Powerball, economic forecast be damned. All the good karma I’ve accrued is clearly paying out at last.

Don’t worry, I’m not delusional. One win would feel like beating the odds, and I would ride that high for as long as I could.

But the Law of Large Numbers says that any outcome can happen eventually…