How humanoid robots reshape steel demand

In recent years, the breakthroughs in humanoid robot technology and the acceleration of its commercialization process are having a profound impact on the global demand for industrial materials. The rise of this emerging industry not only brings about structural adjustments to the demand for traditional steel, but also gives rise to incremental markets for special steels and lightweight materials.

The outbreak of the humanoid robot industry: The boost to demand is manifested as a "structural opportunity" rather than "scale expansion"

The core structure of humanoid robots includes components such as skeletons, joints, and drive systems, with distinct hierarchical characteristics in material requirements. The steel consumption per humanoid robot ranges from 50 kilograms to 100 kilograms. Taking Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus as an example, with an expected production volume of 1 million units in 2030, Tesla alone could drive the demand for 50,000 tons to 100,000 tons of steel. However, this incremental demand should be considered in the context of the global crude steel production (approximately 1.8826 billion tons in 2024), where its direct impact is relatively limited, expected to account for only 0.02‰ to 0.06‰ of global steel demand.

It is worth noting, however, that the demand driven by humanoid robots for steel is more of a "structural opportunity" rather than "scale expansion." For instance, the demand for precision cutting wires required for harmonic reducer processing is expected to increase by 35,000 tons by 2030. Such specialty steels have significantly higher requirements for precision and wear resistance compared to ordinary construction steels, resulting in a notable increase in added value. Additionally, key components such as servo motor housings and drive shafts need to use high-strength alloy steels, which can cost 2 to 3 times more than ordinary steel. Therefore, although the overall proportion is not high, the niche market for high-value-added steels will become an important growth point for steel companies.

Differentiation of demand structure: the game between light - weight and high - strength.

The extreme requirements of humanoid robots for material properties are reshaping the structural characteristics of steel demand.

(1) The trend of lightweighting is squeezing the application space of traditional steel materials.

The demand for flexible movement of humanoid robots has given rise to the wide application of lightweight materials. The density of magnesium alloy (1.74 grams per cubic centimeter) is only 22% that of steel, and it also has better shock absorption performance, making it one of the preferred materials for robot skeletons. According to estimates, the demand for lightweight materials for humanoid robots will reach 125,000 tons by 2030, with the demand elasticity of magnesium reaching as high as 12.5%, far exceeding that of aluminum at 0.2%. This trend may squeeze the share of traditional steel in structural parts. For example, the Walker S robot of UBTECH has adopted a magnesium alloy frame to replace some steel components, reducing the weight of a single machine by 30%.

(2) The demand for high-strength special steels is growing against the trend.

In components such as joints and gears that bear high loads, special steels remain irreplaceable. For example, the flexible wheel of a harmonic reducer requires carburized steel with a fatigue strength of over 1,200 megapascals, while the cycloid wheel of an RV reducer relies on high-precision bearing steel (such as GCr15). According to relevant research, the hardware requirements of impact-resistant actuators will drive the growth in the amount of steel used for planetary roller screws. In terms of their impact resistance performance ranking, planetary roller screws (mainly made of steel) are superior to harmonic reducers (mainly made of aluminum). The popularization of this technical path may boost the demand for special steels.

(3) Give full play to the synergistic effect of composite materials.

The research and development of new materials such as carbon fiber reinforced steel matrix composites have helped steel find a balance point between lightweighting and strength. For example, the leg joints of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus Gen 2 adopt a structure with a carbon fiber-wrapped steel core, which not only meets the lightweight requirements but also maintains the torsional stiffness of the joints. Such innovations may open up new application scenarios for steel materials.

Industrial chain transmission: from components to process innovation

The transformation in material requirements for humanoid robots is being transmitted upstream through the industrial chain, forcing steel companies to upgrade their technologies.

(1) There has been a surge in demand for precision - processed steel.

The slow - wire cutting process of harmonic reducers relies on extremely fine cutting wires with diameters ranging from 0.03 mm to 0.1 mm, posing stringent requirements on the uniformity and surface finish of steel. Berkshires brand of Bohler Specialty Steels has captured 40% of the global market share in this field, and the gross profit margin of its products is significantly higher than that of ordinary wire rods. This indicates that steel companies need to transform towards high - precision and small - batch customized production.

(2) Surface treatment technology has become a focal point of competition.

The wear resistance and service life of robot joints directly depend on surface treatment processes. For example, nitriding can improve the surface hardness of gear steel, while laser cladding technology can form a wear - resistant alloy layer on the steel substrate. The DSG series gear steels of Daido Steel in Japan have extended the fatigue life by three times through the carburizing + low - temperature ion sulfurizing process, becoming a benchmark product in the supply chain of humanoid robots.

(3) Challenges in the adaptability of short - process steelmaking.

Components of humanoid robots are mostly designed with small sizes and special - shaped cross - sections, posing higher requirements for the purity and uniformity of continuous casting billets. It is more difficult to control deoxidation inclusions in traditional long - process steelmaking, while the electric furnace short - process technology has an advantage in composition fine - tuning. For example, Nucor Steel's CSP (thin slab continuous casting and rolling) production line has achieved stable production of extremely thin strip steel with a thickness of 0.8 mm, which can be used for stamping precision shells of robots.

Challenges and Responses: Steel Enterprises Need to Accelerate Three Major Layouts

Facing the transformation brought by humanoid robots, steel enterprises need to accelerate their layout in the following areas.

(1) Strengthen the research and development of high-value-added product portfolios.

Steel enterprises should develop special steel grades suitable for scenarios such as reducers and dexterous hands. For example, high-nitrogen stainless steel (used for the housing of tactile sensors) and non-oriented silicon steel (for the iron cores of servo motors).

(2) Strengthen cross-industry chain collaborative innovation.

Steel enterprises can jointly build joint laboratories with robot manufacturers, which will help shorten the R & D cycle.

(3) The overlapping opportunity of green and low-carbon transformation.

The lightweight demand of humanoid robots and the carbon reduction goals of the steel industry resonate with each other. Ultra-high-strength steel (such as martensitic steel MS1180) produced by the hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) process is both low-carbon and high-performance, and is expected to become the preferred material for the next generation of robot structural parts.

Overall, the impact of humanoid robots on the steel industry is characterized by "limited total volume, structural differentiation, and value enhancement". In the short term, the demand for traditional construction steel may be under pressure due to lightweight substitution, but sub-sectors such as high-strength steel and precision alloy steel will experience explosive growth. It is expected that by 2030, the demand for special steel driven by global humanoid robots will exceed 800,000 tons, and the market scale will reach 12 billion yuan, becoming an important driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry. For steel enterprises, whether they can seize this opportunity depends on their ability to break through the limits of material performance and their response speed in cross-industry chain collaborative innovation. In the future, the symbiotic relationship between steel and humanoid robots will not only be limited to material supply, but will also form a deep binding of technological co-evolution and ecological co-construction.

Web: Sinosteel Stainless Steel Pipe Technology (Shanxi) Co., Ltd.

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