Formation.

Iran's quandary: How to stay out of Israel's war on Hamas

By Parisa Hafezi, Jonathan Saul and Arshad Mohammed ctober

[1/4]A formation of Israeli tanks is positioned near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel October 21, 2023. REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights



DUBAI, Oct 22 (Reuters) - On Oct. 15, Iran issued a stinging public ultimatum to its arch-enemy Israel: Halt your onslaught on Gaza or we'll be forced to take action, its foreign minister warned.

Only hours later, the country's U.N. mission softened the hawkish tone, assuring the world that its armed forces wouldn't intervene in the conflict unless Israel attacked Iranian interests or citizens.

Iran, a longtime backer of Gaza's rulers Hamas, finds itself in a quandary as it tries to manage the spiralling crisis, according to nine Iranian officials with direct knowledge of the thinking within the clerical establishment.

Standing on the sidelines in the face of an all-out Israeli invasion of Gaza would significantly set back an Iranian strategy for regional ascendancy pursued for over four decades, according to the people, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the discussions in Tehran.

Yet any major attack against a U.S.-backed Israel could exact a heavy toll on Iran and trigger public anger against the clerical rulers in a nation already mired in an economic crisis, said the officials who outlined the various military, diplomatic and domestic priorities being weighed by

Three security officials said a consensus had been reached among Iran's top decision makers, for now: Give their blessing for limited cross-border raids by its Lebanese proxy group Hezbollah on Israeli military targets, over 200 km away from Gaza, as well as low-level attacks on U.S. targets by other allied groups in the region. Prevent any major escalation that would draw Iran itself into the conflict.

"We are in contact with our friends Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah," Vahid Jalalzadeh, the head of parliament's National Security Committee said on Wednesday, according to Iranian state media. "Their stance is that they do not expect us to carry out military operations."

Iran's foreign ministry didn't respond to a request for comment about the country's response to the unfolding crisis, while Israeli military authorities declined to comment.



It's a high-wire act for Tehran.

The loss of the power base established in the Palestinian enclave via Hamas and allied group Islamic Jihad over three decades would puncture those plans, which have seen Iran build up a network of armed proxy groups across the Middle East, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, the sources said.

Iranian inaction on the ground could be perceived as a sign of weakness by those proxy forces, which have been Tehran's principal weapon of influence in the region for decades, according to three officials. They said it could also dent the standing of Iran, which has long championed the Palestinian cause against Israel, a country it refuses to recognise and casts as an evil occupier.

"The Iranians are facing this dilemma of whether they are going to send Hezbollah to the fight in order to try to save their arm in the Gaza Strip or maybe they are going to let go of this arm and give it up," said Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and a negotiator during the first and second intifadas.

"This is the point where the Iranians are," he added. "Calculating their risks.

Iran's strategic goals are countered by immediate military considerations as Israel - responding to Hamas' devastating attack on Oct. 7 that killed 1,400 Israelis - has unleashed an aerial blitz on Gaza, killing at least 4,300 people.

Israel - a major military power - is widely believed to have its own nuclear arsenal, though it will neither confirm nor deny this, and has the support of the United States, which has moved two aircraft carriers and fighter jets to the eastern Mediterranean, partly as a warning to Iran.

"For Iran's top leaders, especially the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), the utmost priority is the survival of the Islamic Republic," a senior Iranian diplomat said.

"That is why Iranian authorities have used strong rhetoric against Israel since the attack started, but they have refrained from direct military involvement, at least for now."

Since Oct. 7, Hezbollah has exchanged fire with Israeli forces along the Lebanese-Israeli frontier in clashes that have killed 14 of the Islamist group's fighters.

Two sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said the low-level violence was designed to keep Israeli forces busy but not open a major new front, with one characterising the tactic as waging "small wars".

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who is known for issuing threats against Israel in speeches, has not given a public address since the crisis began.

Three senior Israeli security sources and a Western security source told Reuters that Israel didn't want a direct confrontation with Tehran and that while the Iranians had trained and armed Hamas, there was no indication that they had prior knowledge of the Oct. 7 attack.

Khamenei, the supreme leader, has denied Iran was involved in the attack, though he praised the damage inflicted on Israel.

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