Are Teslas Worth It?

I own a Tesla. And I love driving it. I especially love the acceleration. It can zip from zero to warp speed in less than a second and bury you in the cushions of your car seat. Merging onto highway traffic at a steep upgrade is smooth and responsive. I used to panic hearing my combustible engine rev up to 6000 rpm and still feel that the car was moving at a snail’s pace. You know that feeling of dread when you merge into traffic and look in the rearview mirror, hoping the car behind you doesn’t slam on his brakes or car horn? Behind a Tesla, I am graceful as a gazelle, darting down the street. I feel free.

The other great feeling is that I’m not spending forty to fifty dollars at the gas pump with every fill-up. It adds up. I can quickly burn $250 a month at the gas station. Now, I park my Tesla in my garage and charge it overnight. I don’t do it every night, maybe once or twice weekly. And it isn’t like I charge my car entirely, more like top it off from 40% to 80% fully charged. Maybe three or four hours of charging is needed. I do it on a Sunday or Wednesday evening. I like the idea of spending fifteen dollars on electricity for a fill-up. Let’s face it, as long as Putin is in power, he will not let go of his dream of having Ukraine under a Russian flag. He is patient and determined to win at any cost.

The world’s oil prices will not fall but will rise in a chaotic spiking pattern. OPEC will tighten its spigot of oil production as tightly as possible. Oil producers see this as a golden opportunity to increase revenues and profits. The OPEC leaders and oil conglomerates are delightfully smirking when their faces are hidden in the shadows. In private, they are singing Putin’s praises. Let the war continue. A stalemate will guarantee profits and revenues for years to come. Oh, how sweet can it get? Get used to being grabbed by the ankles and shaken upside-down until every last penny starts falling out of your pockets. The oil barons need your money more than you do. Inflation is making a big dent in their billions of profits.

My friends argue that EVs, especially Tesla, will end up as a fad, like overpriced beanie babies or talking Elmos. Not Tesla. EVs are cheaper to make than ICE (Internal Combustion Engines). Tesla has revolutionized the automobile industry. Tesla innovates not every few years but constantly on the assembly line. If there is an improvement to any Tesla model, Elon Musk will not wait for next year’s model introduction; he wants it done ASAP. In other words, a Model Y produced in January 2023 will have been tweaked several times during the year and will be different than the Model Y produced in November 2023, but both are 2023 Model Ys.

The traditional automakers are playing catchup and are five to seven years behind Tesla. Tesla has purposely designed their factories to produce EVs. All of Tesla’s automobiles were designed as an EV from the blueprint to factory production. The traditional automakers are still producing conventional ICE cars and are trying to either retrofit EVs to the frames of ICE cars on manufacturing assembly lines designed for ICE cars. It’s like trying to adapt your grandmother’s favorite recipe with substitute ingredients using whatever cookware you can find. It’s not the same, and it will be less than desirable. Many cost-conscious buyers may try other EVs, but they will regret buying them and get rid of them fast.

Also, Tesla is churning out four models from its four factories. The Tesla Semi trucks were shipped to Pepsico last month. The cyber truck is rumored to come out in the second half of 2023. Many traditional automakers have promised many models coming out soon, only to push back their timelines to 2025 or later. Many traditional automakers haven't started EV production because they struggle to supply their dealerships with ICE vehicles. This gives Tesla a big running start. Tesla is forecasting the roll-out of 1.8 million EVs in 2023. That is their conservative estimate.

Chinese automaker, BYD, poses the biggest threat to Tesla. Incidentally, Warren Buffet has a sizable stake in BYD. Many financial pundits cite BYD as the EV automaker that will bring Tesla to its knees. I don’t think so. BYD has many quality issues and fares far worse than Tesla in customer satisfaction. If a car buyer takes a leap of faith toward an EV purchase, customer reviews will play a bigger factor than cost. Even if BYD can provide an EV at half the cost of a Tesla, it will still boil down to customer satisfaction. Is an EV buyer going to be happy with any EV car that he is not happy with at $35,000 or thrilled to death beyond expectations with a Tesla at $55,000 or $70,000?

Ford has two formidable EVs in production, the Mustang Mach E and The Electric F-150 truck. Incidentally, the EV Mustang outsold the old and true blue gas-guzzling Ford Mustang muscle car last year. Ford estimates that it will sell 270,000 Mustang Mach E in 2023. Tesla sold 252,000 Model Ys in 2022. The problem with Mach E is that dealerships are selling it above MSRP. If you go online and order the Mach E, the base model has a wait time of 30–35 weeks, and the luxurious GT model has an 18–22 week wait time. If you order online, Tesla Model Y has a 4–6 week wait time. Can Ford become a Tesla killer? I doubt it. The Mach E is good, but Tesla Y is slightly better spec-wise. If you get in an accident and your car is totaled, are you willing to wait 18 to 35 weeks for a Mach E, or will you wait 4–6 weeks? If you need wheels to go to work, drive the kids to school, and get your shopping done, you need your wheels ASAP.

So what is the ace up Elon musk’s sleeve? Well, he has three aces that make Teslas more desirable. First, Elon Musk has provided Tesla enthusiasts with a vast network of Tesla Superchargers. A family can travel in their Tesla across Europe and the United States. Finding a Tesla supercharger is easy, abundant, and reliable. While searching for a supercharger, family road trips won’t become a Chevy Chase sequel to National Lampoon’s Vacation. As of 2022, the US has 16,000 superchargers and destination chargers. There are 1.31 million Tesla vehicles on the road. Other EVs are currently excluded from using Tesla superchargers. The reliability of other charging facilities has been unpredictable. Chargers were either broken or slow to charge.

Elon’s second Ace is Tesla’s safety rating. Tesla is rated as the safest vehicle on the road. Families with small children value safety. Parents are willing to spend extra for peace of mind knowing that if an accident should occur, their children will be protected. Unfortunately, many people get a new car when their previous car was totaled in an accident. It may be days before a driver returns to the road after an accident. Driving a safer car will make the transition easier for the traumatized driver.

Screenshot from author's Tesla App for charging in Jan 2023

And finally, let's talk about the gorilla in the room, full self-driving (FSD). Will it live up to the hype that Elon is bragging about? Maybe. But, on long stretches of highways across the US, FSD will work. It will become this generation’s cruise control on steroids. I do not think it will make driving carefree and hands-off. But it will make it more relaxing. After driving a long stretch on the highway toward a family vacation destination, whoever is driving ten, twelve, or fourteen hours at a stretch, will love the FSD feature of a Tesla. With a family of four and airfare at historic highs, more and more families are switching from flying to driving to their destination. I can see a family preferring a Tesla over an ICE car. The family can subscribe to the FSD feature for 30 days during their drive, feel assured that there will be plenty of fast-charging Tesla Superchargers along their road trip, and it will be cheaper to charge up than fill up their vehicle with high gas prices.

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