Wide Open Invitation (Week 15)

We are now down to the final four weeks of the regular season; not at the holidays yet, but we are very close. We are actually one week away from having Saturday NFL games, and I've always loved Saturday football--especially with flex scheduling involved. I know this much: there are no more byes for the rest of the regular season. For the final four weeks, all 32 teams play, with most of them actually playing for something. It's gut check time for sure. The numbers are thinning out quickly, and teams need to get wins now, or face a nuclear winter.

Now, let's take a look at the playoff picture entering Week 15:

In the American Football Conference, the now-nine time defending AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs still lead the conference at 12-1. The Buffalo Bills' loss and the Pittsburgh Steelers' win puts them in a tie at 10-3, with both teams having identical 7-2 conference records (the teams do not face each other this season). Strength of victory (the combined record of the opponents that a team has defeated) now applies, and the Bills (.454) have that over the Steelers (.408); beating the Chiefs definitely helped Buffalo. So the Bills are #2, the Steelers are #3, and at #4, it's the AFC South leading Houston Texans at 8-5.

Speaking of 8-5, that's the record that each of the three teams in Wild Card positions have. The Baltimore Ravens, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Denver Broncos each have those records. So who is seeded where? Via tiebreaker, it's the Ravens at #5 because they defeated the Chargers, who are #6 because they have a win over the Broncos, who are down to #7. There is not much below the playoff line, only the Indianapolis Colts (6-7), the Miami Dolphins (6-7), and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) are still alive, though the Bengals can be eliminated this week.

In the National Football Conference, the playoff bound Detroit Lions are 12-1 and leading the way, while the Philadelphia Eagles are close behind at 11-2. Holding the #3 spot, the NFC West leading Seattle Seahawks at 8-5, while the #4 spot is now being held by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who lead the NFC South at 7-6. So yeah, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the West and South winners will be #3 and #4 in the conference.

As for the Wild Card positions, the Minnesota Vikings hold the #5 position at 11-2, the Green Bay Packers are #6 with a 9-4 record, and the Washington Commanders are #7 at 8-5. And it's still quite hot below the NFC Playoff line. The Los Angeles Rams, at 7-6, are not only one game behind the Commanders for the last spot, they are one game out in the NFC West. After that, it's a cluster of 6-7 teams, and that is led by the Atlanta Falcons, who dropped from #4 to #9 in the conference, and that's via tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers. After that, it's the New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys at 5-8, and while the Saints can't be eliminated this week, the Cowboys can. So can the Chicago Bears and the Carolina Panthers.

So that's the picture. Now let's talk about who can get in, and who can take division titles this week.

It has been a huge rise for the Pittsburgh Steelers this year. In each of the last three seasons, they needed the final week and some help to actually get in, and they got in two of those three times. This year, the berth can come three weeks earlier than usual. The Steelers have the AFC North pretty much sewn up, but they can't clinch the division yet. Pittsburgh can get in this week, and all they have to do is win or tie to do it. Option B has Pittsburgh clinching with losses or ties from Indy and Miami. The Steelers face the Philadelphia Eagles this week; an Eagles team that has won nine straight games. If the Steelers do win, then next week, they'll go to Baltimore with a chance to lock up the AFC North with another win.

It has not been easy for the Texans this season. They have been up and down for the most part, and they've been embracing their current villain arc with their defense of the actions of Azeez Al-Shahir. Even with this, the Texans can not only make it to the dance, but they can do so as champions of the AFC South. A win and a Colts loss is the only way that gets done. The Texans host the Dolphins this week, and as for Indy, they'll be in Denver against the Broncos, who can actually move one win away from clinching if they beat Indy this week.

The Eagles got the first part over with; they locked in a playoff spot with their ninth straight win. Next step: the NFC East. Philly can lock up the division this week with a win and a Commanders loss or tie. If they tie, the Commanders have to lose. As mentioned earlier, the Eagles will host the Steelers this week, and as for the Commanders, they will be in New Orleans against the Saints. Now, if the division is still up for grabs after this week, the Eagles will head to DC next week, and they can get the NFC East with a win in that game.

The Minnesota Vikings are playoff bound. Not officially, but they are. It's absolutely mind-boggling that they're 11-2, though the only reason that it's not the most head-scratching moment this season is because of how the Chiefs have fluked their way to wins. The Vikings had a chance to clinch last week. They didn't, but it was definitely not their fault. After all, they won. And even if your long scenario doesn't come true for that week, a win makes future scenarios oh so simple. The Vikings control their own destiny big time. A win or tie gets them in. If not, a Rams loss or tie gets them in. If not, a Seahawks loss or tie gets them in. See how easy these scenarios are? And it gets easier. The Vikings host the Bears on Monday Night Football, but even then, they could get in days before that. The Rams face the Niners on Thursday Night Football.

I literally beamed when I went to the weekly scenarios and saw that the Green Bay Packers can clinch this week. Even with the heartbreaking loss in Detroit, we still earned the right to get in this week. We have one way to get in, though, and it is a doozy. Our scenario: win, Rams/Niners has to end tied, and a Falcons loss or tie. Yeah, you read that right. The Packers host the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, and the Falcons will be in Sin City against the two-win Raiders on Monday Night Football. Even so, I have to pull for a tie on Thursday. Even with regular season overtime not being fully sudden death and only 10 minutes long, ties are still rare. And even if that game does end deadlocked, will the Falcons actually lose to the Raiders? Some smart alecks would probably say yes. Even so, I won't hold my breath for a tie in Rams/Niners unless it reaches OT. There's a good chance that we'll have to wait until next week to get in, so let's just win this one and get Jordan Love his first 10-win season of his career, how about that?

Four weeks remain in this wacky season, and it's getting very, very interesting. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Week 15 starts with the Rams/Niners game ending in a tie; it's been that crazy of a season. I truly think the final four weeks will bring some chills, thrills, and some very wild moments!