Picking the 2024 College Football Season — The Power Four

The 2024 season is a season of change, this goes without saying. With SMU in Texas, Cal and Stanford both in California now playing in a conference based on the Atlantic Coast, Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA playing on a conference littered with East Coast and Midwest schools, and Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC, we have officially entered the post-geographic era of college football.

Add to this, the fact that for the first time, college football has a playoff format more akin to the FCS and college basketball (though nowhere near as big) and we have a situation where it’s pretty hard to predict exactly what will happen.

With conferences ballooning up to 18 teams, more than ever, a team’s final record might depend more on who within the conference a team plays, than whether they’re the best team in said conference.

So, with that all said, I will attempt to predict the winner of each of the four major conferences, as well as the two teams that will play in the conference championship, and some dark horse candidates, and I will explain in as much detail as possible, why I have picked who I’ve picked.

ACC

Conventional wisdom would suggest that this is Florida State’s to lose, considering that they just came off a 12–0 year that arguably should’ve seen them face off in the playoffs. But, taking into account feelings had by the playoff committee after QB Jordan Travis’ injury, this team isn’t quite as elite as their past season’s record might’ve suggested. Don’t get me wrong, I’m fully in the camp that they got robbed last year, but ultimately, it’s hard to predict if they’ll be able to reload and continue on an elite streak akin to last year’s season.

Beyond Florida State, many viable options exist: Clemson, Louisville, Miami, N.C. State and even teams like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and SMU could vie for competition for the conference crown. Louisville was much improved and competed against Florida State in the conference title game, but it can be argued that Louisville had some considerable help with scheduling to get there. Is there a team this year who, like Louisville last year, has an easier road than most? Will the addition of Cam Ward via Washington State to Miami be the secret ingredient to push Miami over the last hill required to be…well, the Miami of old again? Can Virginia Tech bring back the days of Beamer-Ball dominance? Will SMU join the ACC and crash their party? Will somebody finally remember that N.C. State placed third last year? Will Syracuse ride former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord to the conference championship?

Championship: Florida State v. Miami

No, this isn’t Cam Ward fever. Honestly, I think there are probably at least two teams who have better rosters and coaching staffs in the ACC, those being Clemson and Louisville. So then, why Miami over them? Well, honestly, it simply comes down to who has the easier road. Clemson plays a grueling schedule, both in-conference and out-of-conference, with out-of-conference games against South Carolina and Georgia, plus in-conference games against Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Florida State, and N.C. State. If they win all of those, I’d be surprised, on top of all the other games that’ll see them get knocked around and worn out. I think a safe bet is that they win half of those games, and a great Clemson team gets left out of the championship. And although Louisville has an easier schedule, they feel a bit more of a wild card to repeat.

Winner: Florida State

If this is the conference championship, I don’t see Miami having much of a chance. However, I could be wrong. In a duel between Ward and Uiagalelei alone, I pick Ward. But as much as people pretend this is solely about the quarterbacks, it’s not. Florida State has way more talent overall.

Dark Horse Contender: Virginia Tech

Anybody under 25 might laugh at this prediction, especially since Va. Tech hasn’t been relevant since 2011, and has only had double-digit wins once since then. Still, Tech has without a doubt the easiest schedule in the ACC this year, with only two tough games this year: at Miami to open up ACC play, and Clemson at home at the tail end of the season. They could very easily split those games and end up with another loss and vie for a spot in the championship game. Also, the team seemed to have new life after Baylor transfer Kyronn Drones took over at QB. If that trend continues, I could see Virginia Tech being every bit as formidable as the teams at the top of the conference.

Big Ten

It would seem that this conference is Ohio State and Oregon’s to lose. Considering the turnover at Michigan, and the lack of conferences, the winner will now simply be the two best teams, not somebody from the East slaughtering some poor prairie team from the West. So, if Michigan isn’t the same team it was last year — which physically speaking it won’t be considering the loss of several key players and coaches — somebody else might take the title this year. But those who write Michigan off so quickly forget that this same team beat Penn State with Sherrone Moore coaching and J.J. McCarthy not throwing the ball for the latter half of the game. Still, Michigan can’t solely on its impressive defense and running game for everything. They will need a signal caller to make big plays to keep defenses honest. That being said, outside of Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State, and possibly Penn State, I would be surprised if anybody else plays for a conference title. USC is in the midst of a defensive rebuild. Iowa is in the middle of finding an offense. Wisconsin is rewriting the entire Wisconsin way. And Nebraska has potential, but with a freshman QB at the reins, it’s unlikely they compete this year.

Championship: Oregon v. Ohio State

Ohio State has too many talented players at key positions coming back both on offense and defense, and they added some impressive talent in the transfer portal that might reform their offense and bolster an already stout defense. Oregon is the most Big Ten-ready team joining the new 18-team conference, and although they’re welcoming in some new players — namely at QB, OSU is too — their option might ultimately have a stat line that dwarfs OSU’s new QB. Still, of the teams likely to win the whole league, these two are near the top and unless Michigan or somebody surprises, we’ll likely see a rematch of these two for the championship.

Winner: Ohio State

As I said, these two teams are near the top of the league in terms of talent on the roster. It could go either way in a head-to-head matchup on a neutral field, and we’ll get a better idea of how they stack up against each other on Oct. 12 when OSU goes to Eugene. But if they square up in Indianapolis at the year’s end, I’d put my money on Ohio State simply because of the overwhelming amount of talent on the roster.

Dark Horse: Nebraska

Out of all the teams in the Big Ten, Nebraska has the easiest road to a conference championship. They could start the season 7–0 before they walk into Columbus on Oct. 26, and even if they lose that game (which they probably will) the rest of their schedule is filled with beatable teams. UCLA is an almost definite win. And at USC, Wisconsin, and at Iowa are all games that they could easily win, especially because by that time any kinks in QB Dylan Raiola’s game should be worked out by then. If one of the top teams falls two or three times, Nebraska’s easy schedule and improved talent could propel them to a conference championship birth.

Big 12

Betting on clear favorites in the new-look Big 12 is a loser’s game because at least 10 of the 16 teams have a chance at playing for the conference title on paper. The only team I feel certain about — and not even that certain — is Utah, due to their consistency in the Pac-12, and the fact that they have a veteran QB in Cam Rising leading them for his seventh season in Salt Lake City. Beyond that, the next two most likely candidates for the number two spot are Kansas State and Oklahoma State, but you could probably add Kansas, Arizona, West Virginia, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, and UCF to that list, and an outside chance at Colorado and Baylor — though I don’t see either of those latter two playing for anything but bowl contention. I would love to break down the reasons for every single team above, but if I did I’d be here all day, and you’d be reading the college football equivalent to War & Peace. So, I’ll just say this. The only thing I promise is that I’m almost certain to be wrong.

Championship: Utah v. Kansas State

Again, I feel like the fact that Utah has a recent history of being one of the most dominant teams in a conference that featured USC, Oregon, and Washington, among others, and has at least played for a title in that conference four of the last six years, taking an arguable step down in overall competition means that they’re likely to play for the championship, if not win it. Kansas State has also been a team that’s made the most of a difficult situation, being competitive in a league with rosters that often have considerably more talent than they do top to bottom. Add to that the fact that they have a workable schedule — arguably the easiest in the Big 12, and sophomore QB Avery Johnson whose play forced Will Howard to transfer to Ohio State, and they seem the most likely candidate to face off against Utah in the conference title.

Winner: Utah

Utah has been consistently one of the better teams in college football for some time now, often playing spoiler to teams with stacked rosters, and I don’t see them being outplayed week in and week out in a Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma. Honestly, I might’ve picked Utah even if the new SEC members had stuck around because Utah plays well against tough teams every year and they never seem to be phased by the challenge.

Dark Horse: UCF

It might be tempting to pick Kansas, Arizona, or even Oklahoma State here. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if somebody considered them as dark horse candidates, but those three teams will likely be the next in line going into the season, at least on paper, behind Utah and Kansas State. So, it wouldn’t be fair to pick them as a dark horse. Plus, UCF joined the Power Four and finds themselves in arguably the greatest geographic advantage in the league, especially for recruits and transfers. This brings me to K.J. Jefferson, former Arkansas Razorbacks QB, who coach Gus Malzahn has likened to Cam Newton in terms of skillset. He didn’t say he was Newton, but that he’s similar, and it would be interesting to see what Malzahn could do with all of that potential in Orlando.

SEC

Conventional wisdom should lead me to lean into the tried and true options here, right? I mean, going as far back as 1992, there have only been 10 SEC championship games without Georgia or Alabama in the game. And I don’t mean to infer that Georgia has been as dominant as Alabama over that period, but they certainly are now, and historically speaking Georgia ranks third in all-time SEC championship appearances only behind Florida, whose periods of dominance in the 90s and early aughts don’t reflect the team who is now playing arguably the hardest schedule in the conference. So, it should seem like a no-brainer, right? Alabama reloads with a coach in Kalen DeBoer who has gone 104–12 with teams far less talented than Alabama’s roster, and Georgia who hasn’t lost to a team in the SEC outside of Alabama since 2020 easily walks back into the championship, right? I mean, it seems obvious that these two teams seemed destined to replay this championship in perpetuity. Except, this year Georgia faces arguably one of the toughest schedules in the conference, having to play Clemson — who they’re favored to beat — in Atlanta, on top of road games at Alabama and Texas, as well as Tennesse, Ole Miss, and Auburn — a team that could be much improved this year. So, for anybody assuming that Georgia walks right into the playoffs again, I must say that Georgia walked into those games usually facing predominantly SEC East teams, who have lately been on the downswing. Oh, and they also have to play Florida, the last SEC team not named Alabama to beat them.

Championship: Alabama v. Texas

Listen, before you click off this because I didn’t pick Georgia, know this. I think Georgia has arguably one of the two most talented rosters in college football right now, and will probably still make the college football playoff, and probably have the best chance to win it. I can’t see them not falling at least twice this year, especially with tough road games, tough non-conference games, and a much tougher draw of SEC teams than Texas means that either Alabama or Georgia probably falls out of this game this year. I picked Georgia because they have the tougher schedule, especially because of those two tough road games against two of the top three teams in the SEC — them being the third and arguably top “dawg”.

Winner: Alabama

Maybe I’m biased, having watched Michal Penix in his Indiana days before moving to Washington and becoming a Heisman hopeful, but I feel like Alabama has the potential to be a special team, especially if their passing game gets even a little bit better. We know the defense is going to be filled with talent, and they won with defense last year, but with Milroe already in the Heisman conversation, if he can make some more plays with his arm, I could see Alabama being a tough out for anybody next year.

Dark Horse: Missouri

There may be some who argue that Missouri isn’t a dark horse candidate, as they have already proved that they’re ready to compete for the SEC title, coming in second last year in the SEC East. But with the addition of Oklahoma and Texas and the removal of conferences, I would argue that Missouri has only fallen a little further down the ladder. Some say that Texas and Oklahoma won’t be as dominant in the SEC as they were in the Big 12, and I agree that they’ve entered a harder league. That said, Oklahoma has ranked in the top ten in recruiting rankings for the past four cycles and beyond, and Texas played for a National Title last year. Also, Oklahoma beat Texas last year. Do I think Oklahoma will have a better season than Missouri this year? No, but I also feel like Missouri has the easiest schedule in the SEC, and with a talented enough roster and a great coaching staff, I could easily see them sneaking in if Texas, Bama, Georgia, and Ole Miss fail to produce double-digit wins in a much tougher SEC.

Check back later for more college football previews, including predictions of the Group of Five schools, Heisman predictions, and CFB playoff predictions.