FanGraphs' MLB Predictions for 2025
The teams that they favor for the regular season and playoffs
Greetings, baseball nerds! The MLB regular season is fast approaching and you're curious about how well your favorite team will do this year. For this story, we'll be going over what teams FanGraphs have chosen to win each division and their chances of winning the World Series. Those are the two categories that will be the main focus throughout this story. Please note that these predictions and odds are subject to change and updated daily. These are posted as of this writing. I'll be comparing what FanGraphs have said versus what I've predicted in previous stories. Alright, let's get on with it.
AL East
- FanGraphs prediction: New York Yankees
- My prediction: Baltimore Orioles
FanGraphs chose the Yankees to win the AL East, while I chose the Orioles. According to FanGraphs, they have a 34% chance of winning the division and a 6.5% chance to win the World Series. I have the Yankees missing the playoffs, because of their dreadful performance in last year's World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. While I do believe that Aaron Judge will have another spectacular season, overall, they won't see the playoffs in 2025.
AL Central
- FanGraphs prediction: Minnesota Twins
- My prediction: Cleveland Guardians
I have to disagree with FanGraphs on this one. They have the Twins at a 35.5% chance of capturing their division. The Guardians have a better chance of doing just that. The defending AL Central champions made a lot of noise during the ALCS against the Yankees. The two biggest names that made this series interesting was then rookie Jhonkensy Noel (affectionately nicknamed Big Christmas) and David Fry. Manager Stephen Vogt, who was named the American League Manager of the Year last year and also a former MLB player, deserves a lot of credit for taking this team further in the playoffs. In his first season as skipper, Vogt, who was 40 at the time he won the aforementioned award, is confident that the Guardians will be in the Postseason again. I see Noel having a breakout season in 2025.
AL West
- FanGraphs prediction: Texas Rangers
- My prediction: Texas Rangers
FanGraphs have my beloved Rangers winning the division but have them at a 3.6% chance of winning the World Series. A year ago, I went in on them for their blatant disrespect of the Rangers, who have won their first World Series title in 2023. This was a team who swept the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card and ALDS respectively. Not only that but won the ALCS in seven games against their rivals, the Houston Astros. Finally, they beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in five games in the World Series. After being one out away from a World Series title in 2011 against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Rangers used that disappointment as motivation to finally capture it. Despite the blood, sweat, and tears they put into accomplishing this feat, FanGraphs decides to disrespect them. According to their rankings for 2024, they ranked them as the 12th best team in MLB and ninth in the American League. However, it doesn't stop there. They had the Rangers at a 9.2% chance of winning the division and a 10.8% chance of winning the World Series title. So yes, FanGraphs. I gave y'all the super side-eye for that. I was livid and so were Rangers fans. I have news for you, FanGraphs: the Texas Rangers will win AL West, which we both agree on, but we're going to win the World Series. I believe that this will be a redemption year for us. Sure. we didn't repeat as World Series Champions, but we're hungry for it. Plus, we refuse the "one-hit wonder" label, as non-Rangers fans have been saying for the last few months. With the offseason acquisitions of Joc Pederson, Jake Burger, and Kyle Higashioka, who are we to say no?
NL East
- Fan Graphs prediction: Atlanta Braves
- My prediction: New York Mets
FanGraphs has the Braves with a 63.5% chance of winning their division. However, I do see them as a Wild Card team once again. With the loss of their star Ronald Acuña, Jr. for the rest of the 2024 season due to an injury, I believe that this will be his comeback year. However, my pick for the NL East division title is the Mets. OMG! Juan Soto's record breaking and controversial contract he signed during the offseason is a topic that won't go away anytime soon. Like I've said in previous stories, I hope that contract was worth it. Otherwise, the Mets will have plenty of questions that they'll have to answer. You'd expect the Philadelphia Phillies to be my pick to win the division, but I have them not making it to the playoffs. Shocking, I know. They're a good, but mediocre team. I feel like the window of them winning a World Series title is slowly closing. At least, for the current group of players. Manager Rob Thomson has one more opportunity to lead this team to the World Series and winning it. If not, he'll be one of the first managers to be fired by season's end. The Phillies are hot during the regular season, but fizzle during the Postseason and it showed in last year's NLDS loss to the Mets. They'll experience the same issues this season as they did for the past two seasons. For example, going for the long balls instead of hitting singles or doubles. In other words, they lack discipline at the plate.
NL Central
- FanGraphs prediction: Chicago Cubs
- My prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubbies have a 40.2% chance of winning the division, according to FanGraphs. Last season, they finished 10 games back of the Cardinals and Brewers. Until the Brewers figure out how to go further in the playoffs, this prediction will stand. The Cubs were in the Wild Card hunt near the end of the 2023 season but fell apart and were soon out of the race. Will 2025 finally be their year to capture the division title? Only time will tell.
NL West
- FanGraphs prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
- My prediction: San Diego Padres
They might have won a World Series title during a full season, but I see them as a Wild Card team, because they infuriated me during the offseason. And no, I'm still not going to acknowledge the 2020 title they won. They may have an 83% chance of winning the division again and also becoming the favorites of repeating as champions again, but I beg to differ. The excessive overspending they've done during the offseason, gatekeeping Japanese talent, and the horrible, offensive comments about LGBTQ+ people said by Clayton Kershaw in a 2023 interview are the many reasons why I chose the Padres to end the Dodgers' years-long reign as NL West Champions. It's about time that someone new gets to go further in the playoffs. There will be a new king of the NL West and it'll be the Padres.
About the Creator
Mark Wesley Pritchard
You can call me Wesley. Former cosplayer, retro gaming fanatic, die-hard Texas Rangers fan, and nostalgic freak. Need I say more?
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