Compare and Contrast: 2026 MLB Wild Card Predictions

Spring Training is just around the corner, which I'm looking forward to. In this story, I'll be comparing my picks to clinch Wild Card berths in 2026 to what Fangraphs has predicted. Please note that Fangraphs odds for each team to clinch a Wild Card or division title berth changes daily. The percentages of what Fangraphs with, as far as who will punch their tickets to the Postseason is our sole focus for this story. I'll compare and contrast to Fangraphs division title predictions will be highlighted in the next story. Let's get this show on the road. We're only going to highlight our top six teams.

Wesley's Wild Card Picks

• Texas Rangers
• Athletics
• Cleveland Guardians
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago Cubs

Fangraphs Wild Card Pick Chances (by percentage as of January 31, 2026)

• New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies (47.1%)
• Atlanta Braves (40%)
• New York Yankees (38.5%)
• Toronto Blue Jays (38%)
• Boston Red Sox (37.7%)

Wild Card Picks Summary

Let's start with my picks first. With Skip Schumaker named as the new Rangers manager in 2025 and the acquisitions of Brandon Nimmo and Mackenzie Gore, there's no doubt that they'll have their hands full during the 2026 regular season. The Rangers have a paltry 18.2% chance of securing a Wild Card spot, according to Fangraphs, so they'll have their work cut out for them. I would like for them to win the American League West for the first time since 2016, but until they improve on areas such as scoring with runners in scoring position and taking advantage of winning games to push for a playoff berth, they'll become one of my Wild Card picks for the time being. The Guardians and Cubs made it to the playoffs in 2025 but suffered early exits. The Athletics are a young team, and I do see them making some noise in the upcoming regular season. 2025 Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz is poised to have another outstanding season. They could be one of the surprise teams to punch their tickets to October.

Fangraphs Wild Card picks aren't terribly bad, but I have so much to say about them. The Mets haven't had the best offseason, mainly because of the backlash they've endured from their irate fans for letting four of their best players sign to other teams. Even with the acquisition of Bo Bichette, it'll be interesting to see if they'll make it to the playoffs and have adequate success and by adequate, I mean making it to the World Series, which they haven't been to since 2015. They would have to prove their fanbase wrong. Otherwise, it'll be a long season for them and David Stearns might be on his way out by season's end, due to the heavy criticism he had received for the offseason moves he made. Meanwhile, the Phillies are hoping to attempt making the playoffs yet again and avoid another exit. Even with them acquiring World Series hero Adolis García in the offseason from the Texas Rangers, I still don't have any faith in them, citing their past playoff failures. They perform well during the regular season, but falter in the Postseason. They have some great players, but they have the same issues: going for home runs and not having discipline at the plate. It has been their M.O. for years. The New York Yankees haven't won a World Series title in nearly 20 years. Under manager Aaron Boone, the Bronx Bombers have yet to achieve this feat. Relevancy alone won't save them from their past Postseason exits. This team hasn't been the Yankees we loved seeing since the early to late 2000s. Finally, the Toronto Blue Jays are determined to repeat as division champions in 2026. The defending American League Champions, despite falling short in last year's World Series, are going to be even more dangerous than ever, hitting wise. They might as well be the kings of the American League East.