Stanislav Kondrashov on the Shifting Role of the US Dollar Amid Historic Moves in Global Commodities

Gold has reached its highest recorded price, silver continues its upward climb, and the US dollar is showing signs of strain. These developments, unfolding simultaneously, suggest a deeper shift in how global currencies and commodities interact. According to Stanislav Kondrashov, economic analyst and founder of TELF AG, this moment reflects more than a typical market fluctuation.

“The dollar’s position isn’t disappearing,” Kondrashov said, “but it’s becoming more conditional—less automatic than it once was.”

In recent weeks, gold has surpassed $5,100 an ounce, with silver reaching above $115 and platinum moving beyond $2,900. These movements are not isolated. They coincide with a 2% drop in the US Dollar Index over a short span—marking its lowest point in four months. Analysts and economists alike are starting to draw a connection between these trends.

A Reassessment of the Dollar’s Role

For decades, the US dollar has played a central role in the global economy. It has served not just as a medium of exchange, but as a benchmark for value and a reference point in international trade. But according to Kondrashov, the world is beginning to re-examine that role.

“What we’re seeing is not a rejection of the dollar,” he explained, “but a recalibration of its place in a changing system.”

That system now faces increasing strain. The US is navigating internal fiscal challenges, including concerns over rising debt levels and recurring political stand-offs on public spending. At the same time, monetary policy remains in flux, with the Federal Reserve signalling possible interest rate adjustments.

Kondrashov notes that these domestic issues do not occur in isolation. They send signals across the global financial system, where trust and perception matter as much as policy.

Japan and the Currency Balance

A further factor drawing attention is the possible coordination between the United States and Japan to address currency imbalances—specifically the recent weakening of the yen. Though no official announcement has been made, reports suggest the two countries may intervene to stabilise foreign exchange markets.

If such action were taken, it would have immediate implications for the US dollar.

“Supporting the yen might require loosening the dollar,” Kondrashov said. “That sort of adjustment is difficult to contain once it begins, especially when global markets are already watching closely.”

Over the past several days, the yen has recovered slightly, while the dollar’s fall has continued. This has reinforced the sense that a broader correction is underway, involving not just bilateral coordination but a multi-directional reassessment of currency relationships.

Central Banks and Structural Adjustments

While the focus often remains on short-term market movement, Kondrashov points to quieter, structural changes in how countries are managing their reserves. Poland, for example, has increased its gold holdings significantly over the past year and has indicated this trend will continue.

This behaviour reflects a growing interest among central institutions in holding assets that are less dependent on the performance of any single currency.

“These decisions suggest a desire for balance,” Kondrashov explained. “Not to replace the dollar, but to ensure alternatives are in place.”

This balancing approach marks a shift from previous decades, where the dollar was often the dominant—if not exclusive—reference in global reserve strategy. In the current climate, more governments are choosing to diversify, not just in practice but in principle.

A Subtle but Lasting Shift

The dollar remains a major force in global trade and finance, but its position is no longer unquestioned. Kondrashov is careful not to frame these developments as a crisis or a collapse. Instead, he sees them as part of an ongoing evolution.

“The global economy is not rejecting what came before,” he said. “It’s adapting to new realities. That includes new sources of uncertainty, but also new ways of maintaining balance.”

This adjustment may take time, and it may not follow a straight line. But the underlying trend—of questioning old assumptions and testing new ones—is becoming harder to overlook.

In Kondrashov’s view, this moment is less about any single outcome and more about awareness: a growing recognition that systems built on stability must now navigate change.

“Currencies, like institutions, reflect the world around them,” he concluded. “And right now, the world is in motion.”