Solana Faces Heavy Resistance at $128–$130 Can Bulls Regain Momentum?

The Solana price action over the past week has been a textbook example of crypto market volatility, characterized by sharp recoveries and swift rejections. After finding a floor near the $117–$120 support zone, SOL embarked on another upward trajectory. However, this latest Solana recovery attempt appears to have once again stalled, encountering a formidable wall of selling pressure in the $127–$130 region. Analysts tracking the Solana recovery trend note that price stability above $120 remains structurally relevant. This Solana price update underscores a persistent battle between buyers and sellers, with the asset’s medium-term trend hanging in the balance.

Solana Attempts Another Recovery

The Solana price recovery from multi-week lows near $120 showcased a brief resurgence of buyer interest, propelling the asset back toward a critical technical juncture. This move was initially interpreted by some traders as a potential foundation for a more sustained rally. However, momentum has decisively faded as SOL approached the $128–$130 band, a zone that has acted as a consistent ceiling since mid-April. The repeated inability to reclaim this territory suggests that while support is being defended, buying power remains insufficient to catalyze a trend reversal. The price action reflects a market in consolidation, searching for the next directional catalyst after a period of significant correction.

Technical Landscape: Trend Still Bearish

A comprehensive view of Solana’s charts reveals that despite recent bounce attempts, the overarching structure continues to favor sellers. From a higher-timeframe perspective, SOL remains trapped below its December 2023 highs, trading within a defined corrective pattern. This Solana bearish trend is reinforced by a sequence of lower highs and well-defended resistance zones. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that broader ecosystem development — including progress within Solana’s Web3 mobile initiative, such as the Solana Mobile Saga and its evolution toward Chapter 2 — continues in parallel, helping sustain longer-term confidence in the network beyond short-term price fluctuations.

Short-Term Structure

In the immediate term, the focus is squarely on the $127–$130 resistance confluence. A decisive hourly close above this zone is the first hurdle for bulls. The next significant pivot point sits at $133.96; a break above this level could signal a more credible short-term shift in sentiment. However, momentum indicators offer little encouragement for buyers at present. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the daily chart is hovering near the zero line, lacking strong bullish divergence, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to maintain territory above the neutral 50 level. This configuration points to ongoing momentum weakness and suggests any advance may be labored.

Medium-Term Structure

Zooming out, the challenges for a sustained Solana recovery become more apparent. The primary obstacle for any bullish scenario is a dense resistance cluster between $144.65 and $146.93. This area represents a combination of previous support-turned-resistance and key Fibonacci retracement levels. Until this zone is convincingly reclaimed, the path of least resistance remains sideways to down. Beyond that, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near $174.98, looms as a distant target and a key barometer for the health of the long-term trend.

Market Volatility Remains Extreme

The recent price action has been a stark reminder of the inherent Solana market volatility. This was exemplified during a New York trading session last week, when a sharp, cascading liquidation event saw SOL plummet from approximately $133 to $122 in a matter of hours. This move triggered over $250 million in leveraged long position liquidations across the market, according to data from Coinglass. Such events cleanse excess leverage but also create headline risk and can damage short-term trader confidence, contributing to the fragile and reactive price environment.

Trader Positioning Signals More Downside

Derivatives market data provides a window into trader sentiment, and the current signals are not overtly bullish. Aggregate Open Interest (OI) across Solana perpetual futures markets has been trending lower alongside the price, indicating that capital is leaving the leveraged trading arena rather than positioning for an imminent rebound. Furthermore, funding rates, the fee paid between long and short traders, have periodically turned negative. This suggests that short-term traders are willing to pay to hold bearish bets, a sentiment shift that often precedes or accompanies further downside pressure.

Network Resilience Underlines Long-Term Strength

Amidst the turbulent price action, a non-price development highlighted a core strength of the Solana ecosystem. The network recently weathered a reported attempted Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack without any material disruption to block production or finality. While network stability is a baseline expectation, successfully mitigating such events without downtime is a positive data point for developers and long-term holders. It is interpreted by infrastructure analysts as evidence of improving network maturity and client robustness, factors that contribute to fundamental health irrespective of short-term price fluctuations.

On-Chain Activity Softens

Paralleling the price consolidation, key on-chain activity metrics have shown signs of cooling. Total volume on Solana-based Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) has retreated from its Q1 peaks, and the fervor around memecoin trading and launches has noticeably tempered. This divergence between on-chain usage and price action is noteworthy; while it may simply reflect a cyclical cooldown, it also removes a potential tailwind for price that was prevalent during the first quarter. Sustained growth in real, utility-driven activity will be crucial for supporting valuation in the medium term.

Institutional Flows Show Long-Term Confidence

In contrast to the nervous retail derivatives market, institutional investment vehicles have displayed notable steadiness. Solana-based investment products, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in jurisdictions like Canada and Europe, have continued to see net inflows throughout much of the recent volatility, according to weekly reports from asset managers. This divergence suggests that while tactical traders may be reducing exposure, institutions with a longer-term horizon are using periods of weakness to accumulate or maintain positions, viewing the asset through a different, less volatile lens.

Key Levels to Watch

For traders and analysts, navigating the current environment requires a clear map of significant price levels.

Resistance Zones

The immediate Solana key resistance is the $128–$130 band. A sustained break above this is the minimum requirement for bulls to regain any short-term initiative. Above that, the $135 level and the critical $144.65–$146.93 cluster represent the next major supply zones that must be conquered to invalidate the medium-term bearish structure.

Support Zones

On the downside, the first line of Solana key support is near $125, followed by the recent swing low around $122. A break below this would likely retest the more substantial $117–$120 area. Failure to hold there opens the door for a deeper correction toward the $108 and, ultimately, the psychologically significant $100 level.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bull Case

The bullish scenario requires SOL to first achieve a clean breakout above the $130 resistance with conviction. A subsequent move above the $133.96 pivot would then set the stage for a test of the primary medium-term resistance between $144.65 and $146.93. A weekly close above this $147 region would be a strong technical signal that the correction has concluded and that a retest of higher levels, potentially toward the 200-day SMA, is underway.

Bear Case

The bearish scenario remains the path of least resistance until key levels are breached. It envisions a rejection at or near the $130 resistance, confirming it as a lower high within the existing downtrend. This could catalyze another leg down, initially targeting the $117–$120 support zone. A breakdown below this crucial area would significantly weaken the structure, making declines toward $108 and $100 increasingly probable.

This Solana price update highlights how recovery momentum remains fragile near resistance.

Key Takeaway on Solana Recovery Outlook

The current technical and on-chain evidence suggests the short-term outlook for Solana remains cautiously bearish, defined by a struggle to overcome overhead supply. The medium-term structure also retains its bearish bias, with SOL trading well below its yearly highs and key moving averages. For Solana recovery price outlook to shift meaningfully, buyers would need to engineer a sustained recovery that not only breaks the immediate $128–$130 resistance but also powers through the formidable $144–$147 cluster. Until such a move materializes, the market structure suggests that rallies are likely to be sold, and the focus for traders will remain on key support levels. The bullish invalidation of the current corrective phase only occurs on a decisive break and hold above the $146.93 resistance.