Pressure on XRP: Will Ripple's Token Recover or Continue to Fall in 2026?

Recent selling pressure on Ripple's native token XRP has prompted a flurry of bearish predictions from analysts and a reflection of the overall weakness in cryptocurrency markets. Some people in the market say that institutional adoption and ETF inflows could be good for XRP, but others say that technical breakdowns and a lot of long positions could make it go much lower until 2026.

On January 31, 2026, XRP experienced a notable decline as rapid selling broke a critical $1.79 support level, dragging the price down to around $1.74–$1.76 on heavy volume. Derivatives data revealed that, after support failed, leveraged bets amplified the downside by liquidating more than $70 million in XRP futures, primarily from long positions. This move came as part of a broader risk-off environment in crypto markets, where Bitcoin and other major tokens have also struggled. This correlated sell-off turned into a cascade of forced selling that intensified the downward momentum because XRP frequently exhibits high beta, which means that it moves more rapidly than larger assets like Bitcoin.

The loss of the "$1.79 support zone" is significant according to technical analysts. XRP's price structure became more bearish once that level became resistance, and attempts to recover below the broken support level have so far failed. The pattern suggests that downward pressure may continue unless buyers reclaim $1.79 or higher.

According to TradingNEWS, XRP is currently trading close to "90-day lows" of $1.60–$1.70, with support zones closer to $1.61 serving as potential floors in the event that downward momentum continues. If that zone breaks, psychological and technical support priced at or below $1.50 could be tested next, putting more money at risk for long periods of time. Stop-loss orders and algorithmic responses to key price breaks catalyze larger moves than fundamental news alone might justify, as evidenced by this bearish technical picture. These dynamics are amplified by leveraged positions, particularly on futures markets, which frequently result in sharp swings on increased volume. Some analysts argue that the technical stress and weaker fundamentals point to deeper losses ahead for XRP. A recent prediction from The Motley Fool suggests that the token’s valuation may be too high relative to its market fundamentals, leading to potential normalization toward $1 by the end of 2026 if selling pressure persists and broader market enthusiasm wanes.

Although XRP is not fundamentally "doomed," this forecast contends that it faces valuation contraction risk if speculative demand vanishes. In that scenario, prices could revisit levels not seen since earlier phases of the bear market, challenging holders who bought near recent highs.

Not all perspectives are bearish. Crypto ETF issuer 21Shares published a more balanced 2026 forecast, outlining bull, base, and bear scenarios for XRP. In its base case, XRP could reach roughly $2.45 by year-end, supported by regulatory clarity, strong ETF demand, and institutional flows into U.S. spot XRP funds. A bull case scenario could push prices to around $2.69, while the bear case sits near $1.60 if adoption slows or capital rotations dominate.

21Shares highlights that the resolution of long-running legal uncertainty — particularly the 2025 conclusion of Ripple’s SEC battle — has removed a major overhang. That result resulted in a reopening of access for regulated institutional products like ETFs, which drew substantial inflows and may provide steady demand rather than purely retail speculation. In addition to ETF flows, proponents cite adoption of the XRP Ledger for decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets, and stablecoin settlement as medium-term catalysts that could buttress price support, especially if trading activity and liquidity increase.

The fact that bearish and bullish forecasts diverge demonstrates the inherent difficulty of forecasting volatile digital assets like XRP. Technical breakdowns, leveraged liquidations, and correlated weakness with significant tokens like Bitcoin point to significant downside risk in the absence of fresh capital inflows on the bearish side. On the upbeat side, the adoption of real-use financial applications and institutional participation, particularly through regulated ETFs, make a case for renewed upward momentum in the event that market conditions improve. These contrasting drivers create a wide range of plausible price outcomes for XRP in 2026.

To navigate XRP's outlook, traders and long-term holders must pay attention to both technical signals and the larger market context:

Support levels and liquidation points: Breaking below important supports like "$1.79" can set off automatic liquidations that deepen sell-offs, while reclaiming these levels may help stabilize prices.

ETF and institutional flows: Consistent capital inflows into XRP-linked ETFs may assist in mitigating selling pressure and laying the groundwork for price support.

Macro correlation: The larger crypto market trends, such as the price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum, continue to be significant, frequently influencing sentiment in smaller altcoins like XRP.

The volatile interaction between market mechanics, speculative positioning, and evolving institutional involvement is shown by XRP's price action in early 2026. Balanced forecasts take into account the token's institutional demand and regulatory tailwinds, despite bearish scenarios predicting further declines to $1 or lower in extreme cases. In order to navigate what is still one of the crypto market's most contentious assets, investors will need to have a solid understanding of both sides of the story as well as the technical thresholds that could determine market direction.