Leading Up to the FOMC: Quiet Confidence

The Market Before and After the FOMC: Still Waiting for a Signal

Leading up to the FOMC, the market leaned mostly bullish.

Not wildly so, but you could feel the optimism in the air.

There were also structural reasons—triple witching, quarter-end—where fund managers likely had an incentive to keep prices stable.

And some investors seemed to be betting that the Fed would eventually move toward rate cuts. That optimism was definitely lingering.

But underneath all that, there was this shared sense that "the real direction comes after the FOMC."

Most people were in wait-and-see mode, and I think that was the dominant mood.

🧭 A few key signals before the FOMC:

CPI and PPI came in soft recently.

That was encouraging, but the Fed didn’t bite.

Their stance was basically: “A couple soft prints aren’t enough. We’d need to see a consistent trend before considering cuts.”

→ So the market saw this as possibility of a cut—not a guarantee.

No one really expected immediate action, but they were hoping for a softer tone.

BOJ didn’t make any major moves, and most other central banks were still cautious in tone.

→ It wasn’t enough to really drive a strong risk-on rally.

A lot of traders I know were cautiously optimistic—but even they weren’t buying aggressively.

People were setting alerts instead of setting orders. That’s kind of the energy we were in.

📉 And then came the FOMC…

It wasn’t as dovish as some might have hoped.

If anything, it leaned a bit hawkish.

Inflation outlook revised up

GDP growth outlook revised down

Out of 19 members: 7 said no cuts this year, 8 projected two cuts

→ In short: “Yes, we’ll cut… but slowly. Carefully.”

Given where rates are now, the Fed doesn’t need to move quickly.

They’ve got room. They can afford to wait. And based on what they said, they plan to.

So the FOMC didn’t give the market a clear direction.

We’re basically in limbo, just waiting for the next narrative to emerge.

🧩 What feels key right now:

This isn’t really a “go long everything” moment.

Yes, the Fed is starting to lean toward cuts—but inflation isn’t under control, and geopolitics are still messy.

No one wants to go all-in when there are landmines still out there.

But it’s also not full-on risk-off.

The door to cuts is cracked open. That’s enough to keep some hope alive.

Most likely, we’ll see a choppy, sideways market—

with selective liquidity flowing into alt assets when a strong enough narrative pops up.

📌 Market Reaction: Cautious, Not Panicked

After the FOMC, stocks didn’t collapse.

Crypto had a brief bounce. Bonds barely moved.

It was one of those “meh, okay then” moments.

People aren’t scared. But they’re definitely not excited either.

It’s like the market’s sitting on the couch, checking its phone, waiting for something interesting to happen.

🔍 What I'm Watching

Personally, I’ve raised my cash a bit.

There are a few altcoins or sectors with interesting narratives, and I’m keeping an eye there.

But I’m not rushing into anything. I’d rather wait than overextend in chop.

If the Fed shifts its tone, or if inflation really starts to cool—sure, I’ll lean back in.

But for now? Caution feels like the smarter move.

🎯 Final Take

This FOMC didn’t give us a breakthrough moment.

But it did confirm one thing:

No aggressive cuts, no aggressive tightening.

So yeah—right now, we’re in a "waiting phase."

And sometimes, waiting is the strategy.