Bitcoin Isn’t Done Yet

Bitcoin has been hovering around the 94k range, and honestly, a few months ago that number would’ve felt unreal. Back then, Michael Saylor was casually calling for 150k by the end of the year. So now people are wondering if he’s changed his mind. The funny part is he hasn’t. If anything, he sounds even more convinced. His recent CBC interview made it pretty clear that he thinks the noise is temporary and the trend is still very much intact.

Saylor’s entire view of bitcoin has this simple rhythm. Short term, it behaves like a wild animal. Long term, it’s shockingly consistent. Just look at the last five years. Six major drawdowns, a post election pump from 68k to 106k in just a few weeks, and a jump from 55k fourteen months ago to where it sits today. The long term annualized return hovers around 50 percent, which makes gold and the S&P look almost sleepy. MicroStrategy itself has been running closer to 70 percent, which is basically in Nvidia territory. With numbers like that, it’s not surprising he’s unfazed.

When he was asked about near term upside or downside, he said the current zone feels pretty stable. The excessive leverage that tends to destabilize markets has been flushed out. Weak hands were already liquidated. Old selling pressure above 100k has mostly been absorbed. Macro shifts still exist, sure, but none of that changes what he thinks is the core truth: the structural strength of bitcoin keeps getting better.

MicroStrategy’s balance sheet is another thing people misunderstand. There’s this meme that it’s some hyper leveraged bitcoin casino, but the reality is boring in a good way. Their leverage is only around 1.15x. Their debt maturity is more than four years away. Even with an eighty percent bitcoin drawdown, they maintain excess collateral. Their preferred equity structure also means they don’t face the kind of default scenarios people imagine. Saylor calls it “intelligent banking,” and honestly, it’s not far off.

One of the more interesting parts of the interview was his reaction to Cathie Wood adjusting her target from 1.5 million to 1.2 million. She argued that the explosive growth of stablecoins might slightly reduce bitcoin’s usage. Saylor pushed back hard. In his framework, the digital economy is split in two. One layer is digital capital, which is bitcoin. The other is digital finance, which includes things like stablecoins, tokenized securities and pretty much everything happening in the PoS world. These aren’t competitors as much as they are parallel systems. And as he put it, wealthy people don’t buy currency. They buy capital assets. Bitcoin, in his view, is clearly in that category.

And here’s the part everyone always wants to know. Is MicroStrategy still buying? His answer was almost casual. Yes. They bought a few weeks ago. They’re buying now. They’re even increasing their pace. He teased that next week they’ll announce something surprisingly large. Right now they hold about 3.1 percent of all bitcoin, with an average cost of around 74k. His line was simple. We always buy. Bitcoin is always a good investment.

He also laid out a clean framework for how different types of investors should think. If your horizon is four years or longer, bitcoin is the choice. If you want bitcoin exposure with built in leverage, then MSTR is the move. If you’re only thinking in twelve week to one year cycles, then digital credit products like Stretch make more sense. In shorthand, long term is bitcoin, mid term is MSTR, and short term is digital credit.

By the end of the interview, nothing about his philosophy had changed. If anything, the recent volatility seems to have reinforced it. Bitcoin is digital capital. It outperforms gold, the S&P and basically everything else over long enough time frames. MicroStrategy is built to survive market swings. The digital economy is expanding and the different layers aren’t fighting each other. And short term noise is just that, noise.

From Saylor’s perspective, the direction hasn’t changed. Bitcoin still goes up. Everything else is just commentary.