Without Social Distancing, Hospitalization Rate would Explode and Break more than our Healthcare Systems. Electrical Grid, Infrastructure and other Workers are also Vital

Photo by Jeanne Menjoulet

Social Media, ranting with your friends and all the talking heads, the news is unavoidable. For sanity purposes, I’m trying my best to separate from the downward cycle. Unfortunately, one narrative truly disturbs. It says the shutdown of the country is an elaborate exaggeration for the purpose of unseating the President in November. Somebody should tell that to the 47,000 dead Americans, but there is another aspect that protestors are overlooking.

But first let me agree that things maybe overblown, and a key point of contention is the 80,000 flu deaths last year. Holy crap, and while the coronavirus fatalities has ten months to equal, that tragedy went well below the radar.

Taking the flu facts in context and the coronavirus numbers, I’m probably more afraid than I should be. At the epicenter, however, Business Insider reported on April 13 that my 45-64 age group had 37,851 NYC cases, 10,182 hospitalizations and 1449 deaths. That’s a 3.83% fatality rate.

Troubling but fear paralyzing - I don't know. Furthermore, unreported recoveries taking place at home, and those unknowingly infected, drops the fatality rate even lower.

Going down the chart, the fatality rate drops to .72% or 284 deaths. Thus 18-44 year olds might rightly be wondering why they are not partying like its 1999.

On the other hand, those over 66 should be rightly peaked, and I won’t quote the numbers we all know. A tragedy that has unfolded under an unprecedented city wide shutdown, and the White House’s own projection tallied 2 million dead as the upper national limit.

The fatality percentages likely static, the same party on logic could apply. Revelry aside, “the cure becoming worse than the disease” probably speaks louder to protestors. But there is a statistic that is being overlooked and affects us all.

There were 28,000 hospitalizations during the month cited, and again, in home incapacitation is not known. But given how contagious the virus is, those idled in their apartments had to be pretty high.

Then imagine how much higher that number would have been without social distancing. As it were, the hospital system bended to the point of breaking and without the concerted effort, bended would have been broken.

So passing on social distancing in your part of the country, a heart attack, car accident or other treatable conditions would further up the fatality rate. And good luck getting that broken leg or sciatica treated.

The healthcare concerns wouldn’t be the only thing leaving us at risk, though. The exponential rate of incapacitation would have exposed the less talked about tiers of essentially workers.

We all have ever lasting thanks for the supermarket workers, police officers, firefighters, pharmacy workers and daycare teachers watching the children of first responders. But what about the workers who maintain our infrastructure, hold down the electrical grids, manage food production and continue the stream of energy flow.

I mean would we really feel safe if three or four senior members of the local nuclear power plant were recuperating for a month. How about when the power gets knocked out, and there just aren’t enough workers to restore your town. You could be sitting there for a month, and without power in various pockets, people will die for such extended periods.

Who knows what else I’m leaving out, and for those who think the shutdown is a hoax, the mountain New York just came down would be a Mt Everest you cannot imagine.

Rich Monetti