Revealed: Why An Official Sub 2-Hour Marathon is Not Beyond Possibility

Last weekend saw us take another step towards the feasibility of a (official) sub-2 hour marathon, with Eluid Kipchoge dismantling his own record to once again reaffirm his status as the greatest marathon runner who has ever been.

As it stands, Kenyan Athlete Eluid Kipchoge remains the only person to run a sub 2-hour marathon - however, with an asterix beside his achievement.

When the-then 34-year old took on the Ineos 1:59 Challenge back in October 2019 he proved what was labelled as ‘humans having no limits.’ The event which took place through the streets of Vienna was a race designed in the favour of the Kenyan breaking the sub 2-hour barrier.

There was considerable scepticism around whether or not this could ever be achieved and studies had previously detailed that such an undertaking wouldn’t be humanly possible until at least 2032. Broken down, running a marathon in less than 2 hours involved covering the length of a football pitch in just 17 seconds and repeating said feat 422 times on the bounce.

Kipchoge did it, finishing with time to spare - 1:59:40. This translates into a 2:50 min per km pace or 4:34 min per mile pace. Amazingly, when comparing this to the ‘average’ runner, there is little correlation. According to Park Run, the average runner in the UK covers a distance of 5km in 28 minutes and 59 seconds while Eluid managed to run the same distance in 14 minutes 13 seconds, eight times over.

That said, we know that Kipchoge is a name that will live forever in the history books of running. He’s the most talented male marathon runner there has ever been. With this in mind, in this article, we’re going to take a look at the aforementioned asterix beside Kipchoge’s achievement and how improvements in both mindset and technology will inevitably see an official sub-2 be broken, alongside a host of other physical records, when Eluid and fellow runners pull on their shoes.

Bannister’s 4 minute mile

On May 6th 1954, Roger Bannister did something that middle distance runners had been trying to do for nearly a century - break the four minute mile mark.

In running a mile in under four minutes, Bannister did something that many thought to be impossible. 3 minutes 59.4 seconds was Roger’s eventual time - but, what was to soon follow was even more impressive. After athletes attempted to achieve what Bannister had done that fateful day in Oxford for nearly a century, a little under three weeks later the record was broken, by Aussie runner, John Landy.

According to impossible HQ: “once Bannister proved that it was possible to run a mile in under four minutes, suddenly everyone was able to do it – proving an important lesson: once you stop believing something is impossible, it becomes possible.

Ultimately, Roger Bannister opened the doors for other athletes to do what was previously deemed undoable - much like Kipchoge continuing to run at such a pace (almost) over a distance of 26 miles.

How the mind is crucial to performance

There are two types of mindset that are particularly important when it comes to breaking down defined barriers, whether that be in your everyday life, or when it comes to demolishing records previously considered impossible, like that of Bannister or Kipchoge.

These two different mindsets are called the growth mindset and the fixed mindset. Somebody with a fixed mindset believes that their success is restricted to a certain level and due to their surroundings, their physical characteristics, and their general ability, they will only ever be able to achieve so much.

On the other hand, a growth mindset will allow you to overcome personal doubts and generate that belief that if you put in the work, there’s nothing stopping you from overcoming the next hurdle.

While some might consider this arrogance, one’s mind is an often underestimated tool when it comes to physical achievement. Do you know how much easier it is to run an extra mile or go an extra round in the boxing ring if you have the belief that you can do it?

The feasibility of an official sub-2

This takes us back to the asterix mentioned at the beginning of the article - the INEOS 1:59 challenge completed by Eluid Kipchoge wasn’t conducted in official marathon conditions, therefore it cannot be considered a world record.

41 runners who partnered with Kipchoge ahead of the event in a robust training camp also joined him on the day as part of a gaggle of interchanging pacers. “Prater Park in Vienna [was selected] because it offered a route that has a 2.7-mile straightaway with roundabouts on either end. And the entire route had just 8 feet of incline.”

Following completion of the event, however, Kipchoge noted that he, personally, believed that somebody would be able to run a marathon in under 2 hours without the special set up he had been provided.

There was much criticism of the event and not just from the eco-conscious consumers who disagree with the actions of Jim Ratcliffe’s INEOS organisation. Running commentator Toni Reavis wrote: ““As much as they might like to present this as such, the first sub-2:00 marathon is not like the first sub-4:00 mile, or the first summit of Everest, much less the moon landing.”

All those challenges carried in the public consciousness the possibility of death. This is a second-chance marketing exhibition for a plastics manufacturer and springy shoes.”

While this result was engineered, the technology associated with the event is becoming widely available to the general public and approved within World Athletics. Berlin has been the marathon often associated with records, particularly in recent years but, Brigid Kosgei smashed the female record in Chicago, proving there isn’t the perfect course.

There’s opportunities all around the globe to break barriers - and what Kipchoge did, is much like that of Bannister, proving that the once labelled impossible, is certainly possible, and for this reason, we should not be surprised to see an official time of 1:59 posted long before the estimated year of achievement in 2032.