Kenya's COVID-19 Dilemma

The image of a boy, about two years of age, appears on my phone screen. The boy stares at me for a few seconds, a smile on his face, and then rushes off to the next thing that captivates his young mind, oblivious of the turmoil his father, and the world at large, is going through at that very moment.

The small boy is son to Kimathi (not his real name), who I am chatting with via Whatsapp video call. Kimathi runs a small wines and spirits business in downtown Nairobi. Between the liquor store business and his other hustles within the streets of Nairobi — he is an IT graduate — Kimathi has always been able to provide for his small family — two kids and a stay at home wife. Well, that was before the current COVID-19 pandemic hit the world with the force of a thousand charging bulls.

Following the confirmation of several COVID-19 cases in the country, the government implemented a raft of measures to help curb the spread of the virus, including ordering a closure of all bars and clubs in the country, encouraging people to work from home, and introducing a dusk to dawn curfew. The closure of bars and clubs means Kimathi’s main source of income is gone. With more and more people cutting down on spending, most of the other IT related projects he worked on during the day have also dried up, leaving Kimathi staring at an abyss.

As we talk on phone, Kimathi tells me he has been indoors for the whole week. He hasn’t made a single cent for that entire week. The shopping he had done to keep his family going is dwindling, and he tells me that if he doesn’t go out and look for some money within the next day or two, the small boy who was smiling at me, and the rest of his family are going to starve. Kimathi is at the end of his rope.

Kimathi is not alone in this. For Wambui, the story is eerily similar. Wambui owns a small shop along Nairobi’s Tom Mboya Street, where she sells ladies clothes and shoes. The government’s directive for people to stay at home means very few customers are patronizing her shop. This, combined with the fear of contracting the disease and in turn infecting her young daughter, has forced Wambui to also stay at home.

Just like Kimathi, Wambui is running out of money to sustain herself, her daughter, and her house help. She’s increasingly considering going back to her parent’s home upcountry, at least until this is over. Wambui understands that by traveling upcountry, she risks infecting her elderly parents — who are highly vulnerable — with the virus, but she has no other options left.

This is exactly what life currently looks like for the average Kenyan.

For the last couple of days, people have been increasingly calling for the government to implement a full lock down in order to contain the spread of this disease. Majority of those calling for implementation of a lock down are the rich and the middle class, who have their refrigerators and pantries fully stocked up and are capable of surviving the lock down for a couple weeks.

Granted, their calls for a lock down are not unwarranted. Minimizing the movement of people as much as possible is one of the most effective ways of curbing the spread of this virus. However, it’s not a simple matter of calling for a lock down and hoping the problem will be resolved within two or three weeks. The government also has to think about how people like Kimathi and Wambui will survive should a lock down be implemented. Actually, the effectiveness of the lock down hinges on this.

If this situation continues, people like Kimathi and Wambui face a difficult dilemma. They have to either go out in search for something for their families to eat and risk contracting the virus, or stay indoors and watch their kids starve. I really don’t have to say what people are going to choose.

Like the popular saying goes, if you don’t fill up a crack, you will have to build a wall. Kenya’s chance to fill up the crack is long gone. Kenyans started calling for the government to ban flights from China and other countries with reported COVID-19 cases long before the first case was reported in Kenya. This was our chance to fill up the crack. Unfortunately, the government ignored our pleas, and now, we will undoubtedly have to build a wall.

Unfortunately, a lot of what the government is doing now seems to be attempts at filling a crack in a wall that is almost collapsing. A lot of these measures don’t seem to be very effective. Take, for instance, the dusk to dawn curfew. With people still free to mingle during the day, the virus is still spreading. And with the approach being taken by the police force to enforce the curfew, it seems that the curfew is actually doing more harm than good. Already, more have died at the arms of the police than have died of the virus.

Another example of such attempts to fill cracks in a wall that is almost collapsing is Mombasa County’s decision to make it mandatory to wear masks in public, starting from Wednesday next week. The County government announced that it will issue free masks to the residents. However, here is why I feel this won’t be effective either. I’m assuming that the county government will issue one mask per person. Remember, to be effective, these masks are not supposed to be reused. Considering that it will be mandatory to wear a mask in public, people will either be forced to buy a new mask (or more) each day, or reuse the one mask they received from the county government. Once again, you can guess which option majority will go for.

At this point, we can say that the government is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. On the one hand, the government needs to quickly do something to stop the spread of the virus, especially at a time when new cases have started rising rapidly. The most effective way of doing this is to enforce a lock down. At the same time, for a lock down to work, the government needs to find a way to keep money flowing into the pockets of Kenyans, and to ensure that the supply chains for essential goods and services remain open.

None of the two options is going to be easy, but if we are to pull out of this situation, the government will need to make some tough decisions, and make them quickly. At this point, however, we can only wait and see how they will deal with the situation.

Keep safe, wash your hands, and keep social distance. Goodbye Kenyans.