Ukraine War Briefing: Macron Warns that Without Deterrence, ‘Russians Will Come Back’

French President Emmanuel Macron sounded a stark warning: if a peace plan in Ukraine lacks “elements of deterrence,” the Russians will not honor their promises—and they will return. Speaking at a high-stakes gathering of global leaders, Macron emphasized that any proposal to end the war must include credible security guarantees to prevent renewed aggression.

His comments come amid renewed diplomatic pressure and a controversial peace plan backed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, which many European leaders believe could dangerously underestimate Russia’s willingness to break agreements. Macron’s words refocus attention on the core debate: peace in Ukraine must be grounded in deterrence—not simply calls for negotiation.

Why Macron Is Speaking Out

At a meeting of European leaders, Macron rejected the version of a peace deal floated by Trump as imbalanced. According to Macron, the proposal would require Ukraine to reduce its military strength, cut back on NATO ambitions, and make territorial concessions. Such terms worry many European allies who have long argued that ending the war cannot come at the expense of Ukraine’s long-term security.

Macron has made clear that any lasting peace must come with real guarantees—not just vague promises. He stressed that without a credible deterrent force or security safeguard, Moscow could easily return to conflict once conditions favor it again.

Europe’s Plan: “Reassurance Force” and Long-Term Guarantees

To back his warning, Macron is pushing a bold—and controversial—plan: a reassurance force made up of European countries. This force would not be an immediate combat unit but would be deployed after a ceasefire to help ensure that any peace deal is honored long-term.

According to Macron, around 26 countries have pledged to contribute to this effort. Their role could include:

Participating in joint deployments by land, air, or sea

Providing training to Ukrainian forces

Acting as a deterrent against any future violations of a peace agreement

Macron argued this is essential to prevent a repeat of history, warning that Europe cannot rely entirely on the United States or hope that Russia will keep its word without strong guarantees.

Macron and Europe’s Strategic Dilemma

Macron’s proposal has stirred debate among European leaders. Not all countries are fully onboard—some fear the long-term implications of deploying foreign troops, even in a non-combat role. Others worry about the cost and political backlash of taking such a clear “hardline” stance, especially in negotiations that many hope will lead to peace.

Yet Macron is unapologetic. In his address to the French nation, he stated that Europe must be prepared to defend its own security, rather than relying solely on partners or wishful diplomacy. He also hinted at expanding France’s nuclear deterrent to reassure allies—an idea that has already drawn strong Russian criticism.

Russia’s Reaction—and the Risk of Backsliding

Russian officials have responded sharply to Macron’s warnings. Moscow has condemned the concept of a European reassurance force and France’s nuclear posture, accusing Paris of escalating tensions. For Macron, however, these reactions prove the point: deterrence works only if it’s credible.

He warns that without real guarantees, any peace deal runs the risk of being a temporary ceasefire, not a true resolution. In his words, “if there are no elements of deterrence, the Russians will come back and break their promises.”

What This Means for Ukraine—and Europe

Macron’s framing of the situation underscores a bigger strategic shift. Europe is no longer content being a passive bystander in a war primarily orchestrated by Russia. Instead, it aims to take more responsibility for its own security and the future of Ukraine.

For Ukraine, Macron’s warning may strengthen its negotiating position. By demanding real security guarantees—not just promises—Kyiv may push for a deal that prevents future escalation.

For the rest of Europe, the idea of a reassurance force could reshape post-war defense architecture. It signals that in the event of peace, European nations are ready to stay engaged—militarily, politically, and morally.

A Call for Credible Peace

Macron’s message is clear: peace without strength is fragile, and guarantees without teeth are worthless. He argues that for any peace deal to last, it must be built on foundations that make breaking it too risky.

As European leaders continue negotiations, Macron’s insistence on deterrence could prove pivotal. If Russia believes that the international community will respond to broken promises with real force, the calculus of war changes.

His warning isn’t just for Ukraine; it’s for all of Europe—and the world—to recognize that lasting peace might demand more than words.