New Pacific Equation: Japan’s Military Renaissance and the end of Strategic Restraint?

For some time now, the world has been entering a new geopolitical era, marked by profound social, political, and military transformations. History teaches us that such transitional phases are particularly delicate and require constant attention, as the risk of “collateral damage” — foremost among them war — is always high.

This is precisely what did not occur in recent conflicts such as Israel and Palestine or Russia and Ukraine. And it may well be what fails to occur in the future relationship between China and Taiwan. History never truly repeats itself, but it often rhymes.

Great leaders of the past — heads of government, dictators, kings, and emperors — have frequently looked at history without truly understanding it, repeating the same mistakes made by their predecessors. A striking example is Adolf Hitler, who replicated Napoleon’s strategic error in Russia, relying solely on presumed military superiority over an army that, although more than 150 years older, had already demonstrated its resilience. A catastrophic miscalculation.

This brief introduction serves to frame what is currently unfolding in the Pacific, a region where the balance of power is shifting rapidly. The Pacific is rearming quietly but decisively. Japan, in particular, has announced plans to raise its defense spending to 2% of GDP, aligning itself with Western standards and positioning itself among the world’s leading military powers — not in terms of manpower, but in operational effectiveness and advanced technology.

The draft budget for fiscal year 2026, beginning in April, foresees a 9.4% increase compared to 2025. This marks the fourth year of Japan’s ongoing five-year plan to double defense spending. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that “this is necessary because Japan is facing the most severe and complex security environment since the postwar era,” emphasizing that the country will continue strengthening its military to keep pace with Western allies and to protect its population. He also reaffirmed that “this path does not alter Japan’s identity as a peace-loving nation.”

Japan’s military expansion includes the development of next-generation fighter aircraft, drone warfare systems, and long-range strike capabilities, with investments totaling approximately $58 billion. This is not a symbolic move, but a strategic one. Following repeated threats from North Korea and amid China’s growing ambitions in the Pacific — particularly regarding Japan’s strategic geographic position — Tokyo has taken what it considers a necessary step for national security.

Nearly eighty years have passed since the era of Imperial Japan, once aggressive and expansionist. Today, the situation is fundamentally different: Japan’s military buildup is conceived strictly as a defensive and deterrent measure against potential expansionist ambitions by other regional powers. In this context, Japan also aims to support countries under pressure, such as Taiwan, which remains under constant scrutiny from Beijing.

This represents Japan’s largest military expansion since World War II — a historic shift from its pacifist constitution, which for decades restricted the armed forces to a strictly defensive role.

However, Japan has also been cooperating with Italy and the United Kingdom on the development of next-generation combat aircraft and long-range Type-12 missiles, with investments exceeding one billion dollars.

Therefore, Japan now ranks among the world’s top military spenders, after the United States and China, surpassing even Russia. Particularly significant was the recent statement by the Japanese prime minister that Japan would militarily defend Taiwan should China take action against the island. These are words of considerable strategic weight.

China’s response was swift: new travel advisories for Japan, diplomatic pressure, media campaigns, and accusations of an unauthorized and destabilizing return to militarism.

But does China truly fear Japan? And since when? Beijing is fully aware that controlling Taiwan would effectively bring its military presence to Japan’s doorstep. For Tokyo, this would represent an existential threat — the proximity of a major military power so close to its borders would be unacceptable.

Japan’s actions and statements are therefore intended to project credible deterrence, strengthen cooperation with Western allies, and prevent potential aggression. This approach mirrors that of the Philippines, which have expanded the U.S. military presence on their territory, and Australia, which is investing heavily in long-range defense systems.

These developments should not be interpreted as alarmist, but as a recognition of an evolving global reality. International stability does not rely solely on hope, but also on deterrence. Peace is never guaranteed when some nations act assertively while others are compelled to prepare for defense.

These measures should be understood as precautionary rather than as an inevitable prelude to war. The world is witnessing the emergence of new global powers and shifting balances. In this context, the circulation of accurate information is essential to inform, educate, and better understand the reality in which we live.