Can Ted Cruz Lose in Texas? Polls Show a Tight Race Against Colin Allred

Can Ted Cruz Lose in Texas? Polls Show a Tight Race Against Colin Allred

Texas Senator Ted Cruz is currently the favorite to win reelection against his Democratic challenger, Colin Allred, in the upcoming November 5 election. However, recent polls indicate the race may be closer than expected, suggesting Allred could present a real challenge.

If Allred were to win, he would become the first Democrat to secure a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Such a victory would be a significant gain for Democrats, who currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate. With Texas and Florida marked as crucial battlegrounds by the Democratic Party, Allred’s potential win could help Democrats retain control in the upper chamber.

Polling Trends: Cruz Maintains a Slight Lead

Polling data from multiple sources shows Cruz holding onto a slim lead over Allred. For instance, the forecasting and polling aggregator 538 has Cruz leading by an average of 3.4 points. Similarly, a Decision Desk HQ/The Hill poll puts Cruz ahead by 3.1 points, giving him a 76% chance of victory in November.

However, Allred’s campaign has highlighted an internal poll conducted by Democratic polling firm GBAO Strategies, which showed the candidates tied at 46% each. This survey, conducted from October 18 to 23 among 800 likely voters, has boosted confidence in Allred’s camp. While the GBAO poll doesn’t list a margin of error, it indicates that Allred may have gained ground, partly thanks to an effective grassroots campaign that has closed a once 7-point gap.

On social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Allred posted about his campaign’s momentum, saying, “We started this campaign 7 points down, and because of our grassroots effort, the race is now tied. With 8 days to go, we're in the 4th quarter, with no timeouts left.”

Competing Polls Show Cruz with an Edge

Although the GBAO poll shows a tie, other recent surveys have Cruz leading by small yet notable margins. For example, an Activote poll conducted between October 21 and 27 among 400 likely voters has Cruz leading by 5 points, with a reported margin of error of 4.9%. In this poll, Cruz received 52% support, while Allred secured 47%.

In a separate New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from October 23 to 26 with 1,180 likely voters, Cruz led by 4 points (50% to 46%). This survey’s margin of error is approximately 3 points, but it underscores Cruz’s continued, albeit narrow, lead.

These polls suggest Cruz is performing slightly better than in his last Senate race. In 2018, Cruz narrowly defeated his Democratic opponent, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke, by just 2.6 points in a heated and highly funded campaign. This year, Cruz’s lead over Allred appears somewhat larger, giving his supporters hope of a safer margin.

Emerson College Polling Hints at a Closer Contest

In contrast to some other polls, Emerson College Polling/The Hill shows the race as especially close, with Cruz holding a 1-point advantage over Allred (48% to 47%). This survey of 815 likely voters was conducted from October 18 to 21, with a margin of error of 3.4 points. The findings indicate that while Cruz still leads, Allred is making gains.

According to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Allred’s name recognition has significantly improved. In early September, 18% of likely voters hadn’t heard of Allred. By late September, this figure dropped to 15%, and in October, only 10% remained unfamiliar with him. As Allred becomes more well-known, he could continue to close the gap with Cruz.

Forecasters Still Favor Cruz but See Room for Upsets

Most election forecasters still predict a Cruz victory, though they recognize the potential for an upset. The forecasting website Race to the White House currently gives Cruz a 74% chance of reelection. However, this number isn’t as secure as it might initially seem; with tight poll margins and shifting voter sentiment, Allred remains a serious contender.

Cruz's campaign has been relatively steady throughout, capitalizing on his experience and conservative platform. Meanwhile, Allred’s grassroots approach appears to resonate with many Texans, especially younger voters and those in urban areas like Dallas, where he serves as a congressman. As Allred’s campaign continues to mobilize voters, the outcome remains uncertain.

Could Texas Become a Democratic Win?

For Democrats, a win in Texas would be monumental. Securing Cruz’s Senate seat would mark a major victory in a historically red state. Although Texas has seen a growing demographic shift in recent years, it remains a challenging terrain for Democrats. However, with more Democrats moving to the state and the influence of younger, diverse voters growing, Texas is more competitive than it has been in decades.

A potential Allred victory could also signal larger changes in Texas’s political landscape, potentially influencing both state and national races in the future. But to pull off a win, Allred’s campaign will need to sustain its momentum and mobilize a high voter turnout, particularly among undecided and swing voters.

Bottom Line: Cruz’s Advantage but No Guarantees

While Ted Cruz remains the likely winner in the Texas Senate race, Colin Allred’s campaign is putting up a significant fight. Polls show Cruz holding a narrow lead, but with voter sentiment shifting and Allred’s name recognition increasing, the race may come down to the wire. Whether Allred can close the remaining gap will be crucial in these last days before the election.

As Texans head to the polls, this Senate race will be one to watch closely. Cruz may still have the advantage, but the possibility of a Democratic upset keeps both campaigns on edge and highlights Texas as a battleground state with national implications.