Are We Approaching World War III?

The majority of the breaking news of the last two months, at least, from the geopolitical sector, were about the idea of the escalation of the regional conflicts existing around the world and, consequently, how fast are we approaching to the next world war. The Western media has also been debating how the Western Nations were getting ready for such an event, especially after the Russian provocations on NATO air space.

On one hand, some experts alert for the beginning of the war in the next two or three months, mainly after the former British General Sir Alexander Richard David Sherriff shared his prediction that the war could start the November 3, 2025, with a Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flanco, specifically in Lithuania. The experts are assessing the possibility that Russia might try to seize the Suwalki Gap, isolating the Baltic countries from the rest of the NATO and accomplish a successful quick invasion on these three countries.

On the other hand, other experts admit the fact we are heading, and fast, to the Third World War. Albeit there are some geopolitical aspects which should be taken into consideration and which could make this click not happen in the next few months but in a few years. May we delve into such aspects.

Trump’s Art of War Strategy

A pivotal piece at the current geopolitical chessboard is the president of The United States, Donald Trump. The fact that Trump changes his behavior every moment about the ongoing events around the globe, leads to wrong conclusions and a high level of confusion from the other leaders. It is a very clever way to influence other geopolitical agents to do what he expects.

Primarily, such a behavior of the most powerful leader in the planet, leads to Europe (especially the Baltic countries and other Eastern European nations) to feel a high level of insecurity wether the Americans will (or not) honor the 5th Amendment of the North Atlantic Treaty when invoked.

Also, it fuels the uncertainty among Middle East countries regarding the next action of the American president on regional matters. Such an uncertainty challenges the planning of Middle East countries to anticipate US foreign policy moves in the region. Moreover, Trump’s art of war strategy rises tensions with China destabilizing the markets, the expectations for Taiwan’s situation and the strategies of the multinational companies, causing major shifts on the current supply chains.

Last but not least, such a behavior generates major instability on the Ukrainian War. Thus, President Zelensky is forced to always keep negotiating with Trump in order to be supplied with additional military equipment, a very different situation compared to the last year with the Biden’s Administration and European leaders. However, with President Putin, such a style of approach holds a different effect, since Putin is also a leader who maintain similar posture.

This type of conduct leaves no room for proportional responses. It is interesting to observe the degree of power that a geopolitical agent holds in his hands, whether to shape a peaceful or violent world, depending on his interests.

The European Dependency on Americans

Following the World War II and the reconstruction of Europe, the European nations kept its safety affairs under the American military “umbrella”, which has shaped the current European foreign policy. Notwithstanding, under Trump administration, the US strongly reversed its priorities and, consequently, its foreign policy, addressing the attention to national matters. Such a political movement exposed the lack of military investment of the European nations. The latest Russian diversified movements across the European territory, such as Poland, Romania and Denmark, has generated concerns among the European leaders, since these movements were coordinated, constant and in mass. Also, the concerns were generated among NATO leaders due to the fact that the response to these Russian tests was not efficient nor fast. From these episodes, there are some relevant aspects to be enlightened.

Putin’s Evaluation and Strategy on NATO

First of all, it is clear that Russia aims to evaluate NATO’s coordination. Along the last 30 years, Russians have invaded in some way NATO’s airspace or used cybernetic sabotage as an indirect strategy against Western countries. Although, the recent movements show coordination, planning and constancy, which displays the aim of Putin to test and analyze some important aspects to be considered before ever going to war. Some experts affirm that a war with the West, depending on NATO’s coordination, can be initiated by isolating the Baltic countries, applying the same strategy proposed to the war with Ukraine. The guarantee Russia would succeed, from Putin’s perspective, is the geographic extension of the Baltic countries, such as Estonia, undoubtedly smaller when compared to Ukraine. Such attack would leverage the rapid conquering of all Baltic countries, destabilizing the West. All in all, such Russia’s movements holds the aim to provoke and, mainly, test the degree of unity among the West countries.

Are Europeans Brave Enough to Go to War Without the US?

The subsequent relevant aspect to be analyzed entails the unclear idea of whether the Europeans holds the capacity to confront Russia by themselves, without American aid. Such an hypothesis remain among experts discussions due to the existence of the possibility that the Americans, committed to adjacent circumstances and holding an risk’s analysis, revoke their commitment to NATO’s Agreement and not take action, as the 5th Amendment orders, against a possible invasion of Russia to Europe.

Hence, the reaction from the majority of the European leaders was considered positive. Germany, for example, announced the reconstruction of its military forces and deep investment in infrastructure. Poland demonstrated unexpected motivation in case of a Russian invasion and most of European countries, such as Sweden, increasingly raised its military spending.

In essence, the affirmation that the world heads to another global war may be a fact, due to several factors such as the arising of numerous conflicts. Notwithstanding, the right question to ask may be when and not if. The factors which may delay the war shall be analyzed and discussed, since for now, everything is unclear. The future depends on our leaders’ decisions and the capacity to manage crisis escalation.