Trump, Afghanistan, and Europe: What’s Really at Stake?

1. Introduction

In recent weeks, former U.S. President Donald Trump made headlines with his remarks about Afghanistan and his interest in regaining access to Bagram Air Base. For many, this statement raised new questions about whether the U.S. might once again step back into Afghanistan. But the more important question is: what would such a move mean for Europe? Would it strengthen European security or expose it to new risks?



2. A Brief Look Back: The U.S. and Afghanistan

The U.S. presence in Afghanistan lasted for nearly two decades, starting after the September 11 attacks in 2001. The war was not only America’s fight; NATO allies, including many European nations, joined the mission. European soldiers served and sacrificed alongside Americans, and European taxpayers helped fund reconstruction efforts.

When the U.S. and NATO withdrew in 2021, it left a deep impact. The Taliban quickly returned to power, and Afghanistan once again became a symbol of unfinished business in global politics. For Europe, the withdrawal meant uncertainty—questions of terrorism, migration, and global credibility were suddenly back on the table.



3. Why Trump Wants Bagram Again

Trump’s interest in Bagram is not accidental. The air base holds massive strategic value. Located in Afghanistan, it sits near some of the most sensitive regions in the world—close to Russia, China, and Iran. From a military perspective, it’s a perfect vantage point.

But politics also plays a role. In American domestic politics, talking tough about Afghanistan and terrorism often appeals to voters who value strength and security. Whether Trump truly intends to return or is using the idea for political advantage, the statement cannot be ignored.



4. If the U.S. Returns to Afghanistan: Potential Impact on Europe

If the United States decides to re-establish a presence in Afghanistan, Europe would inevitably feel the consequences.

Renewed Terrorism Threats: History shows that whenever military operations expand in Afghanistan, extremist groups respond with new threats. Europe could face increased risks of terror attacks.

Migration Pressure: A U.S. return would likely destabilize Afghanistan again, pushing thousands of Afghans to seek asylum in Europe. For European societies already debating immigration, this would add new pressure.

Strains within NATO: Some European countries may support the U.S. move, while others would oppose it, causing new divisions inside NATO.

Geopolitical Tensions: Europe’s relations with Russia and China would also become more complicated. Both countries would see a U.S. return to Bagram as a direct challenge, and Europe could get caught in the middle.



5. If the U.S. Stays Away: The Other Scenario

What if Trump’s statement never becomes policy, and the U.S. stays out of Afghanistan? That scenario also has consequences for Europe.

Power Vacuum: With the U.S. absent, regional powers like Russia, China, and Iran could expand their influence in Afghanistan. This would weaken Western presence in Central Asia.

Taliban’s Strength: The Taliban would consolidate control, making Afghanistan less stable in the long term and potentially giving extremist groups space to grow.

Europe’s Security Burden: Without U.S. involvement, Europe might have to take greater responsibility for its own security and counter-terrorism.

Internal EU Divisions: Some European countries may push for engagement with the Taliban, while others resist, leading to fractures within the European Union.



6. Europe at the Crossroads

For Europe, both scenarios are challenging. If the U.S. returns to Afghanistan, Europe faces new waves of migration, terrorism threats, and political friction. If the U.S. stays away, Europe must deal with instability and geopolitical shifts without American backing.

This dilemma highlights a deeper issue: Europe’s dependence on the U.S. for security. The question is whether Europe should continue to rely on American decisions—or finally start shaping its own independent path in global politics.



7. The Bigger Picture: Global Geopolitics

The Afghanistan issue is not just about one country. It’s about the balance of power in the world. The U.S. is increasingly focused on the Asia-Pacific, particularly China. Russia is aggressive in Eastern Europe. China is investing heavily in Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative.

In this global chessboard, Afghanistan is once again a pawn. And Europe, whether it likes it or not, is directly affected by how the U.S., Russia, China, and regional powers play this game.



8. A Personal Reflection

From my perspective, the human side of this issue is just as important as the political one. Whenever superpowers fight over Afghanistan, it is ordinary people—Afghan families, European citizens, and soldiers—who pay the real price.

I believe that instead of repeating the mistakes of the past, the U.S. and Europe should focus on diplomacy, humanitarian support, and regional cooperation. Military solutions have already been tested for two decades and have brought little lasting peace.

For Europe, this is also a chance to reflect: do we always want to follow Washington’s lead, or is it time to develop an independent European strategy for security and stability?



9. Conclusion – What Lies Ahead?

Trump’s comments about Bagram Air Base may or may not turn into action, but they force Europe to ask tough questions. Whether the U.S. returns to Afghanistan or not, Europe will face consequences—terrorism risks, migration challenges, and geopolitical dilemmas.

The real test for Europe is not in Washington or Kabul, but in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and other capitals: will Europe continue to depend on U.S. choices, or step forward with its own vision for the future?



About the Author

Written by Kareem Kochi, who reflects on global affairs with a focus on how political decisions shape ordinary lives. My work blends analysis with a personal perspective, aiming to make complex issues clear and engaging for readers.