Ukrainian Strikes are Paralyzing Russia

Following a short break in July, Ukrainian strikes across the border resumed, using drone attacks to target Russian oil refineries and air defenses.

These attacks, which drew significant attention in Western media this spring have been blamed for a potential rise in oil prices, although this has proven to be a drastic oversimplification and another example of anti-Ukrainian media putting a target on their back.

These attacks saw success in halting production in Russia's oil refineries, as Russian exports of crude oil and petroleum products are again on the rise, largely thanks to new loopholes in sanctions and boosted trade with China and India. 

Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has launched successful attacks on Russian oil refineries. According to the International Energy Agency, a total of 11 refineries belonging to the Russian state have been the subject of Ukrainian drone attacks.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote the following about the attacks:

"Refineries cost tens of billions of dollars to build; they are large targets and therefore hard to miss; and there is a lot of flammable and explosive matter, making substantial fire damage probable after the hit. There are also plenty of Russian refineries relatively close to Ukrainian territory."

The destruction of the refineries has been a key part of minimizing the effectiveness of the Russian Summer Offensive, which has so far failed to take any key targets or cause any significant blows to the Ukrainians.

A continuation of the strikes brings up stark reminders of the March 2022 withdrawal from the outskirts of Kyiv as a result of logistical failures.

Civilian markets inside Russia have been seriously impacted by the strikes, forcing Russia to balance the allocation of resources between the general population and military applications. A struggle like this could force Russia to use its national budget to subsidize rising oil costs, subtracting it from the military budget and minimizing its effectiveness.

Russian Air Defense Failures

In the past few months, Ukraine has been able to strike unusually far into Russia because so many air defense systems have been destroyed, forming gaps in their interception capability.

George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War in the US said that so many of Ukraine's drones were able to penetrate past the point where Russian air defenses should be able to stop them.

"We've seen numerous times where the Ukrainians have penetrated Russian air defenses and then flown aircraft that the Ukrainians really have no right to fly as deep as they have into Russia," 

"Russian air defenses should have very easily taken them out."

I guess not.

Modern air defenses have proven invaluable on both sides, acting round the clock to minimize the effectiveness of the other's capability in the air and stopping attacks on targets behind enemy lines.

Their effectiveness has created "mutual air denial," in which both sides are limited to using their aircraft in their controlled lands.

Officials have said Russia's defenses had been "stretched", giving Ukraine new opportunities to attack deep into Russia.

"Russians have likely arrayed their air-defense assets in such a way that they have good coverage in the immediate theater around Ukraine. But beyond there, they don't have it,"

Destroying targets far into Russia will again cause defenses to stretch, bringing vital equipment away from the frontline to defend their home turf.

In light of the news of F-16s finally arriving in Ukraine, removing air defenses from the front is not going to help Russia all that much, especially when one of the F-16's main purposes in Ukraine is to suppress what remains of the Russian air defenses.

The F-16 Hype

After a long wait, Ukraine has finally received the first F-16 fighter jets to fight back against an onslaught of Russian missile strikes and air dominance. 

Ukraine has been pushing on the West for months, saying they were critically needed to fight back against waves of Russian missile and drone attacks. Most importantly, the planes will help Ukraine take on Russian air defenses and end Russia's strategic air dominance.

The Associated Press stressed the capabilities of the jet and its munitions to strike Russian targets.

"The F-16s could carry United Kingdom-supplied Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles with a range of more than 250 kilometers (155 miles), potentially striking targets inside Russia."

This new capability could change a lot for the war in the air, but only when Ukraine has received enough jets to rival Russia's Air Force. So far only 60 F-16s have been pledged by NATO, and even fewer have arrived.

Along with the shortcomings of its supply, pilots need to take a nine-month course before taking them to the fight, as opposed to the usual three-year training program. 

So, many of the pilots will come out of training with much less experience than what is recommended for such a complex weapon. And still, the shortened training program still takes almost a year before flyers can start combat operations. That means most of the planes will not be ready for any planned counter-offensive in the near future.

The Future of Ukrainian Strikes

The way I see it, the Ukrainian strikes are serving as a counterbalance to the sluggish Russian Summer Offensive. Kyiv will do what it can to minimize losses and save resources for a shot at a counter-offensive once they build up their reserves and strengthen front-line units. 

When Russia eventually ramps down its attacks after the summer, Ukraine will use its missile and drone capabilities to cripple Russia's infrastructure and defenses to prevent future offensive capability and to allow Ukraine to Retake lost territory in the Kharkiv and Donbas regions.