Which Year Of Marriage Holds The Highest Risk Of Divorce?

Despite the mutual vows of "till death do us part," married individuals can and often change how they feel about and relate to their partners. Whether the result of a drawn-out process or a sudden shift caused by unforeseen events or circumstances, even the sturdiest marriages that seemed certain to stand the test of time can invariably end in a divorce.

Although multiple studies surrounding the dynamics of marriage dissolution have provided varying results, research indicates two distinct periods during a union when the risk of separation is more pronounced – the first two years of matrimony and between five to eight years after tying the knot. More importantly, the seventh and eighth years of the latter period seem particularly prone to divorces.

While the popular notion of the "seven-year itch" indicating partners' diminishing interest in committed monogamous relationships remains generally unsubstantiated, it coincidentally reflects the average length of first marriages (just under eight years) and second marriages (around seven years). Still, since correlation doesn't imply causation, it's worth analyzing what determines such outcomes.

Timeline of Divorce Risks

The first two years of marriage are a period when newlyweds may find themselves having to come to terms with their incompatibility. Hastily sworn commitments with little time for comprehensive discussions regarding the future and unrealistic expectations could sour either partner and sow doubts as soon as the honeymoon period ends.

Unsurprisingly, the risk of divorce during this incipient period is significantly higher than after couples begin having kids around the third-year mark; however, other practical considerations may play into the decision to conclude a marriage early. Since prenuptial agreements prove effective in avoiding the challenges of a high net worth divorce, affluent individuals can always seek to cut their marriage short before the first anniversary if things don’t seem to work out.

Even if couples pass this stage, census data indicates that the median duration of marriages ending in divorce was indeed around the seven-year mark from the 70s up to the 90s. While this provides anecdotal evidence for the "itch" hypothesis, other theories surrounding higher separation risks during this period have been proposed, from biological considerations of offspring survival chances to the effects of early parenthood wearing off and the higher probability of spousal infidelity.

Intriguingly, married couples face lower divorce risks during years nine and 15 of the relationship. This may be partially due to higher relationship satisfaction as children grow older and allow parents to spend more time together, settling into one's career and developing more practical outlooks. However, after the 15th year of marriage, diminished divorce risks begin leveling out and follow the long-term average, concluding the "second honeymoon" phase for many couples.

Other Factors at Play

Drawing broad conclusions based on the average length of unions alone may not provide a complete view of the underlying issues that lead to married couples' decisions to separate. Since every relationship is unique, it's important to be aware of the different factors that can strain relationships to the point of divorce.

Individuals who marry young and those who postpone nuptials until their late 30s have unusually high divorce rates, usually resulting from a lack of preparation for married life and its wider implications. Meanwhile, couples who stay together may develop differing aspirations as the relationship progresses which their partner isn't willing to accommodate, such as switching countries for one's career or contrary opinions concerning children.

Deficient communication is often the root of many issues that can lead to divorce. Perpetually tense marriages where confrontations are the norm seldom stand the test of time or may devolve into abusive relationships. On the other hand, partners who refrain from engaging in open discussions and repressing their dissatisfaction may harbor feelings of resentment towards their spouse, leading to a gradual disinterest in the relationship or seeking comfort outside of the marriage.

For many couples, financial difficulties play a significant part in their decision to sever marital bonds. While partners in low-income or single-earner households may find themselves fighting over how to pay the bills, middle-class families can also experience financial stress during periods of economic downturns (such as the recent pandemic), which can irreparably strain relationships at home. At the same time, affluent couples aren't immune to marriage dissolution, placing the principal earner in the relationship at a substantial risk of loss in the event of a high net worth divorce.

Whether contested or amicable, divorce isn't a decision that partners easily come by. As such, crediting notions such as the "seven-year itch" could have the undesired effect of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, where individuals consider ending their marriage off of unsubstantiated ideas or misinterpretations, often with detrimental results for the one who initiates the separation.

About the Author

Sean M. Cleary, Esq. is the founder, owner, and principal attorney of The Law Offices of Sean M. Cleary, located in Miami, Florida. Mr. Cleary and his firm help individuals manage challenging high net worth divorces, assisting couples to settle disputes and reach an equitable and fair outcome.