Uncharted Waters

Decades before its absorption into the United States, Hawaii had a unique history and significance. Initially, it served as an island territory exploited for its crops. Later, it became the headquarters of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and today, it thrives as a popular tourist destination. However, an intriguing question remains: What if the United States never took over Hawaii? In an alternate timeline, what if Hawaii remained an independent kingdom? Let's explore this captivating idea.

The main challenge lies in determining how this alternative scenario could have unfolded, considering that outright banning foreigners 200 years ago would have been ineffective. So, how could Hawaii have maintained its sovereignty in an era of imperialism? The answer to this question is quite fascinating.

Take a look at the Hawaiian flag. It features a unique design element—the Union Jack. This design element originated from King Kamehameha's admiration for the British flag, which he encountered when British explorers landed on Hawaiian shores. Although a simplified explanation, it highlights the British Empire's favorable view of the Hawaiian monarchy. They respected Hawaii's autonomy and never pursued territorial ambitions, except for one significant incident.

In 1843, a British captain named Lord George Paulet arrived in Hawaii with rumors of discrimination against British subjects living on the islands. Seeking retribution, Paulet demanded an audience with the absent Hawaiian king. Instead, the Hawaiian monarchy referred Paulet's concerns to an American minister of the islands. This action offended the proud Paulet, who overthrew the monarchy, declaring himself the new governor and claiming the lands for Britain. For six months, despite lacking authority from the British government, he de facto ruled Hawaii.

Although the British monarchy disapproved of Paulet's actions, another player entered the scene—the United States. As early as the 1840s, American missionaries had established sugar plantations and settled in Hawaii, forming an influential planter class. These American residents had developed close ties with the Hawaiian monarchy and expressed a desire to protect Hawaiian sovereignty. Given the slow communication of the 19th century, the United States perceived Britain's actions as a takeover of the islands.

Tensions escalated, and American ships entered Hawaiian waters to confront Paulet. However, through threats and timely communication, a violent confrontation was averted. Ultimately, Paulet was relieved by the British, and the entire situation was brushed off as a misunderstanding, with a square named after one of the British captains involved.

Now, let's delve into the alternate timeline. What if this misunderstanding had not been resolved easily? What if the U.S.S. Boston and U.S.S. Constitution had responded to Paulet's actions by opening fire on a British vessel? In normal times, such incidents might have been overlooked or resolved through apologies and negotiations. However, the 1840s were far from normal due to the United States' fervent manifest destiny ideology.

During this period, the United States was driven by the belief in its destined expansion across North America. The U.S. had already engaged in territorial disputes with Britain over Maine and Oregon. James K. Polk, a strong advocate of American expansion, had even contemplated war with Britain over Oregon. In this alternate timeline, with John Tyler in office and his anti-British stance, the attack on a British ship could have been used as an excuse to push for American expansion, even if misguided.

One misunderstanding, one impulsive action could trigger a war. It's not a far-fetched idea considering the historical context. Just 30 years prior, the U.S. and Britain fought the War of 1812, where the British burned down the White House and the U.S. failed in its invasion of Canada. The U.S. and Britain were not the close allies we see today. If British blood were spilled in this scenario, how would the public react? Despite level-headed individuals like Lord Aberdeen, who opposed war with the Americans, events could spiral out of control.

Imagine a war unfolding, reminiscent of the War of 1812. The dominant British navy aims to control the eastern seaboard, while major ground forces deploy from Canada. American cities could suffer significant damage. Although this scenario is speculative, it offers insight into the potential consequences of a single action in a historical context that was already tense.

In conclusion, contemplating an alternative timeline where Hawaii remains an independent kingdom sparks intrigue. The dynamics between the British, American settlers, and the Hawaiian monarchy provide a rich backdrop for exploring the possibilities. While we can only speculate on the specific details, considering the historical context allows us to delve into the potential outcomes of diverging paths.