The Turning Point?!
The most important century in human history?
Some might argue that it was a time of extensive military campaigns that reshaped political and cultural boundaries, much like Alexander the Great's campaign in the 300s BCE. Others might point to the 7th-century rise of Islam, a major religion that codified and spread values across such borders. Or, perhaps it was the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s, which reshaped human relationships with labor and reshaped global commerce. Regardless of the response, it appears that any century competing for that top spot occurred during a time of great change, when our ancestors' actions changed the course of human history for centuries to come. If this is our metric, then is it possible that this century, right now, is the most significant yet? Already, the 21st century has been marked by rapid technological development. Telephones and PCs have sped up the speed of life. Additionally, we are likely on the verge of developing revolutionary new technologies like advanced artificial intelligence that have the potential to completely alter human life. In the meantime, many of the technologies that we already have contribute to the unprecedented levels of existential risk that humanity faces. This risk refers to the possibility that our species will go extinct or that some kind of disaster will occur that will permanently limit humanity's capacity to develop and prosper. The development of the atomic bomb marked a significant increase in existential risk, and since then, our odds have only gotten worse. Estimating the likelihood of an existential collapse occurring in this century is extremely challenging. The odds of nuclear winter and climate change causing an existential catastrophe of around 1%, and the odds of a pandemic causing the same kind of collapse of frightening 3%, are very rough estimates. These are not insignificant numbers considering that any of these catastrophes could result in the end of life as we know it. Additionally, it is possible that new technologies will emerge during this century, introducing additional existential threats. Computer based intelligence specialists have a large number of evaluations with respect to when counterfeit general knowledge will arise, however as indicated by some studies, many accept it could happen hundred years. At the moment, there are only a few specific kinds of artificial intelligence that are made to do specific things like play chess or recognize faces. Even narrow AIs that perform creative work are restricted to a single area of expertise. However, fake general insights, or AGIs, would have the option to adjust to and play out quite a few undertakings, rapidly dominating their human partners. There are a lot of different theories about what AGI might look like and what it would be like for humans to live on the same planet as another sentient being. AGIs may assist us in achieving our objectives, they may view us as insignificant, or they may view us as a challenge that must be swiftly removed. Therefore, it is essential that the values of this new technology align with our own in terms of existential risk. This is a very difficult engineering and philosophical problem that will require a lot of careful, thoughtful work. However, even if we are successful, AGI may still result in an additional complicated outcome. Let's say an AGI emerges with a sincere reverence for human life and a desire to alleviate all human suffering. In any case, to try not to become skewed, it's been created to be extraordinarily unbending about its convictions. Humanity might be enslaved to a single ideology that would be extremely difficult to alter if these machines came to dominate the planet. History has shown that, regardless of how well-intentioned a civilization may appear to be, they rarely live up to the moral standards set by subsequent generations. Furthermore, this sort of significant worth lock in could for all time mutilate or oblige mankind's ethical development. It is extremely difficult to predict how any existential risks will play out over the next century because of the enormous amount of uncertainty surrounding AGI. Additionally, it's possible that these risks will no longer be relevant due to new, pressing concerns. However, it still appears that the choices we make may have a significant impact on humanity's future, despite the fact that we are unable to declare this century to be the most significant. Therefore, perhaps we ought to all live as though the future is in our hands— for, in actuality, it just might.
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