ICYMI: Nigeria’s 2025 flood forecast released - your state might be affected

The Federal Government has raised alarm over impending floods set to hit 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), placing over 1,200 communities at high risk this year.

The warning came Thursday, April 10, during the 2025 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) presentation by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) in Abuja.

Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation Joseph Utsev revealed that coastal and riverine flooding will likely affect parts of the South-South due to rising sea levels, with Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Edo among the most vulnerable.

"Flooding remains one of the most devastating natural disasters in Nigeria, and climate change is making it worse," Utsev said.

The affected states and communities

The outlook identified 1,249 communities across 176 Local Government Areas (LGAs) as high-risk zones, while an additional 2,187 communities in 293 LGAs face moderate flooding risk.

Flagged states include Lagos, Benue, Jigawa, Abia, and Kogi. To enhance preparedness, this year’s flood forecast includes a novel community-based flood prediction model.

“Rather than general predictions, we’re tailoring forecasts to specific communities,” Utsev explained.

Flood to affect various sectors - NIHSA

Internally displaced persons from the floods queue to access health services at St. Luke school used as a shelter in Lokoja on October 22, 2024. [Getty Images]

The Director General of NIHSA, Umar Mohammed, said the forecast has also been expanded to assess potential impacts across sectors like health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure.

“Our focus now gives policymakers and disaster managers sharper tools,” he added. Permanent Secretary of the Ministry Richard Pheelangwah emphasised the urgency of proactive measures.

“This outlook isn’t just about numbers—it’s about protecting lives and livelihoods,” he said, calling on all stakeholders to act swiftly.

The Federal Government urges state governments and communities to heed the warnings and implement early response strategies to mitigate the looming threat.

Nigeria's 2025 flood forecast is out, and it's crucial to stay informed. The Federal Government predicts heavy rainfall and flooding in 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Here are the key points to know:

# High-Risk States

- *Abia*: Expected to experience significant flooding

- *Adamawa*: High flood risk due to rising water levels

- *Akwa Ibom*: Falls under the high-flood risk category

- *Bayelsa*: Coastal and riverine flooding expected

- *Benue*: High flood risk due to heavy rainfall

- *Lagos*: Warned of heavy rains and potential flash floods

# Other Affected States

- Anambra

- Bauchi

- Borno

- Cross River

- Delta

- Ebonyi

- Edo

- Gombe

- Imo

- Jigawa

- Kebbi

- Kogi

- Kwara

- Nasarawa

- Niger

- Ogun

- Ondo

- Osun

- Oyo

- Rivers

- Sokoto

- Taraba

- Yobe

- Zamfara

# What to Expect

- *Coastal and Riverine Flooding*: Expected in the South-South geopolitical zone due to rising sea levels

- *Flash Flooding*: Possible in urban areas like Abuja and Port Harcourt due to poor drainage systems

- *Heavy Rainfall*: Predicted in many parts of the country, with some areas expected to receive above-normal rainfall

# Government Response

- *National Flood Insurance Programme*: Introduced to mitigate flood-related losses

- *Niger Flood Project*: Aims to improve flood resilience and management

- *Community-Based Flood Forecasting*: Implemented to provide early warnings to affected communities ¹ ².