Finding Value in Transfers

Much like NBA free agency, the summer transfer window in soccer provides the opportunity for clubs to change the dynamic of their team going into the next season. For fans, it provides a sense of hope that the changes made will bring positive results for their clubs going into the future. The buzz around the window also keeps the discussion and media coverage around club soccer going year-round. Unfortunately, too many clubs go about it the wrong way.

Too much attention is paid to how clubs can splash a highly coveted target like a Neymar, a Coutinho, a Kylian Mbappe, or in this window, an Eden Hazard or Antoine Griezmann. While signing these targets undoubtedly raises the financial value of clubs or keeps them at their lofty status, the ultimate goal of raising trophies doesn't come without unheralded value signings.

While Real Madrid had the services of the brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo during their incredible Champions League run from 2014-2018, the contribution by players like Toni Kroos, Luka Modric, Casemiro, and Varane played an essential role in their dominance. Kroos came in for €25 million, Modric for €35 million, Casemiro for €6 million, and Varane for €10 million. Those teams were not stacked with Galácticos signings outside of Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo, but the players performed like Galácticos without arriving with the same price tags. Their most recent four Champions League titles were earned by finding value signings, pairing the team with great managers, and developing what was the most balanced starting 11 of all top European clubs.

Another great example of benefitting from under-the-radar signings is Liverpool this season. The club received Salah for €42 million, Sané for £37 million, and Firmino for £36.9 million. The Salah transfer happened the same summer Neymar went to PSG for five times the amount of money. While they did sign Van Dijk in 2018 for a lofty £76 million fee, he is now in the discussion for the Ballon d'Or this year and no forward was able to dribble past him. Any club president would spend that amount in order to get that high quality of a player without losing a wink of sleep. They also lost Philippe Coutinho in January 2018, a loss that was originally thought to present a major blow to that squad. They used that money from FC Barcelona to buy Van Dijk and Allison, strengthening their backline and allowing the midfield to develop around solid players like Jordan Henderson, James Milner, Fabinho, Naby Keita, and Georginio Wijnaldum. They realized that having a solid squad under the guise of a great manager could yield greater results than if they tried to replace a Philippe Coutinho with a superstar transfer. By the end of this season, they were holding the Champions League trophy and had 97 points in the Premier League.

The greatest example of the downside of going after big names at the consequence of team chemistry is PSG. PSG spent €222 million to purchase Neymar and €135 million to purchase Mbappe during the same summer. While this made PSG the "flavor of the month" to begin the 2017-18 season, the team has devolved due to a combination of ego, lack of cohesion, and injury. This season, they failed to win the two French knockout tournaments and lost once again in the Champions League Round of 16. It is very obvious that the front three of Cavani, Neymar, and Mbappe just simply doesn't work nearly as well as it could given the talent each player has. However, from a financial and marketing standpoint, the construction of this team has elevated PSG's financial value with a 12% increase measured from 2018 to 2019 (Forbes). On the pitch, Neymar and company have not won anything more significant than the trophies the trophies PSG was winning before his signing.

The lesson that clubs should take is that landing a player like an Eden Hazard, an Antoine Griezmann, or even a Leroy Sané is probably going to be an incomplete answer. If winning is the ultimate goal, presidents and management need to look at squads and coaching staffs as a whole and make careful decisions as to who would make great additions to the club. They need to try to refrain from banking on the megastar to win the transfer window. For club management, if the funds are present, signing a megastar is the safe decision. It would be an easily defendable position if it doesn't quite work out and those with financial equity in the club would be happy to benefit from the predictable increase in value. A much more difficult endeavor is to get together with club management personnel, analyze players, and discuss how to construct a team that can make runs on the domestic and European stage. It may be easier to sign the biggest name on the market, but over the course of the last couple seasons, the prior mentioned method has led to championships.