Why Orban Became Putin's Lapdog?

Viktor Orban's increasingly pro-Russian stance can no longer be explained by the usual arguments. While once plausible, energy dependence, economic interest, shared ideology, and geopolitics now fail to account for the unpredictable steps the Prime Minister has taken to please Putin in recent months. It is becoming clear that the cost of this relationship far outweighs its benefits, and that alternative explanations are needed to understand Orban's true motives.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's flirtations with Russia are anything but new. Since his return to power in 2010, Orban has consistently positioned himself as a vocal critic of European Union sanctions against Moscow. His defiance of EU norms became particularly evident after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, when Orban broke Russia's diplomatic isolation by hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest.

This move was consistent with Hungary's so-called "Eastern Opening" strategy, declared in 2011, marking the beginning of Orban's interest in forging closer ties with Russia, as well as with other non-Western powers. Hungary's advocacy for the South Stream pipeline, which would have transported Russian gas to Europe bypassing Ukraine, further underscored his commitment to deepening Budapest's relationship with Moscow.

Yet, despite these overtures, Hungary remained a committed member of NATO until the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In a somewhat surprising move, Orban even participated in a UK-led diplomatic initiative by expelling Russian embassy officials following the Skripal poisoning in 2018. This delicate balance between fostering closer ties with Russia and maintaining Hungary's commitments to NATO and the EU has been a hallmark of Orban's foreign policy until the war erupted in Ukraine.

Over the past two years, however, Orban's relationship with Moscow has shifted noticeably. He has not only opposed EU sanctions against Moscow but also used Hungary's veto power within the EU to block military and economic aid to Ukraine. In fact, Hungary is the only NATO and EU member state that agrees with Putin's demands for territorial concessions from Ukraine in the name of "peace."

And yet, this year marked another troubling shift in Viktor Orban's approach to Russia, as his actions have grown increasingly unpredictable. Within days of taking over the rotating presidency of the EU Council, he made a controversial trip to Moscow, positioning himself as a self-appointed peacemaker. His move, combined with Hungary's relaxed travel policies for Russian and Belarusian workers, has raised alarms across Europe. Experts warn that Budapest presents a serious threat to the European Union's stability. In an interview with Euractiv, Belgian political scientist Jean-Michel de Waele remarked that Orban is now "more pro-Russian than the Hungarian communists in the 1980s."

What made Orban perform yet another shift regarding Russia is impossible to know for sure. While major EU economies like Germany and France have also maintained some business ties with Moscow, Budapest's relationship with Russia has evolved into something deeper—unconditional support. This transformation, which many commentators argue is rooted in a mix of energy dependence, economic interests, ideological evolution, geopolitical strategy, and anti-EU sentiments, now appears to be driven by factors that go beyond these traditional explanations. This article will explore the five most common arguments explaining Orban's ties with Russia, ultimately arguing that these factors no longer account for his decisions, which are detrimental to Hungary's economy, security, and national sovereignty.

Energy: big losses and missed opportunities

The notion that energy dependency provides a strong incentive for Orban to maintain good relations with Russia is more myth than reality. Hungary's dependency on Moscow, particularly for natural gas, has been framed only by the Orban government as a strategic choice to secure favorable deals. The reality, however, is far more complex and less beneficial to Hungarians than it is portrayed by the Prime Minister.

Unlike many of its European neighbors, Hungary has clung to its energy ties with Russia even after the invasion of Ukraine, a decision that has resulted in significant financial losses. While Orban's long-term agreements with Putin were promoted as a way to secure cheaper gas prices, data published by Nepszava reveal that Hungary ended up paying well above the average market rate. Although Budapest initially profited by $235 million due to price differences, the deal collapsed by the 2022-2023 gas year, leading to a staggering $1.6 billion loss.

These financial setbacks are even more troubling in the broader European context, as many countries have successfully reduced reliance on Russian gas by diversifying their energy sources and investing in renewables. According to the Elcano Royal Institute, while Moscow accounted for 42 percent of European imports of natural gas in 2021, this figure had fallen to 14 percent by 2023. Poland, for instance, has eliminated its Russian gas imports entirely last year. Greece has made similar strides in renewable energy, even running entirely on renewables for several hours in 2022.

Hungary's continued reliance on Russian gas not only sets it apart from the EU's collective energy transition efforts but also detrimental to its economy. Substantial losses from its gas deal with Russia, combined with the EU's progress in energy diversification, highlight that Orban's strategy is driven by factors beyond energy dependency. The perception of cheap gas is contradicted by economic realities and the missed opportunities for energy security across Europe.

Overstated economic interests

In addition to gas prices, Hungary's economic relationship with Russia, often cited as a justification for Orban's close ties to Putin, is more complex than it appears on the surface. While it is true that Hungary imports raw materials from Russia and has established significant projects like the Paks II nuclear power plant with Russian assistance, the country's economic vitality is more closely linked to its Western neighbors. Budapest's primary trade partners are almost exclusively EU countries, with Germany leading both imports and exports. Hungary is also a market for European products, with the exception of China, which is the second-biggest importer.

Moreover, Orban's warm relationship with Putin has not come without significant drawbacks. Close ties with Russia have brought about negative economic consequences, particularly in the form of poor credit ratings and foreign direct investment. The increasingly illiberal environment in Hungary, marked by unpredictable government interventions and concerns over corruption and favoritism, has made the country less attractive to foreign investors. Orban is also being confronted with soaring inflation and a depreciating currency. These trends, exacerbated by the country's association with Russia, challenge the notion that the country's economic future is tied to Moscow.

Broader economic risks associated with populist and autocratic leadership, as evidenced by recent studies from the Brookings Institution and the Cato Institute, fundamentally undermine the economic dependency argument. Countries with populist leaders, like Hungary under Viktor Orban, often experience a measurable (roughly 10 percent) decline in GDP per capita in their first fifteen years in power. This suggests that Hungary's alignment with Russia may actually be detrimental to its economy rather than a source of strength or dependency.

In reality, the notion that Orban's relationship with Putin is economically motivated is a myth that fails to reflect Hungary's true economic interests. While it is true that Hungary does maintain some economic ties with Russia, these are not as significant as the country's deep-rooted connections with Western Europe. The narrative that Orban's relationship with Putin is driven by Hungary's economic dependency on Russia overlooks the broader economic realities that align Hungary more closely with the West.

Political ideology: ultimate pragmatists

Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin are often compared not just for their shared interests in economic matters but also for their ideological similarities. Both leaders have demonstrated a preference for centralized control, nationalism, and a pronounced skepticism toward liberal democratic norms. While the alignment in governance style might have contributed to their close relationship, there is an argument to be made that Orban's motivations are more pragmatic than ideological.

As the Hungarian philosopher Agnes Heller argued, Orban's primary objective is the maximization of his own power rather than the pursuit of a consistent ideological project. Unlike traditional conservative leaders, Viktor Orban "is the ultimate pragmatist. He has no ideology," says Peter Marki-Zay, former Prime Minister candidate. Viktor Orban utilizes whatever rhetoric or strategy is necessary to maintain control. This flexibility allows him to adopt nationalist, populist, or even liberal positions as they suit his needs, abandoning them just as quickly when they no longer serve his purposes.

Political scientist Ivan Krastev also highlighted the paradox at the heart of Putin's regime, which can also be applied to Orban's Hungary. Despite the authoritarian nature of their governance, neither leader adheres to a strict ideology. Unlike the Soviet Union, which sought to export its ideology, Putin's Russia, and by extension Orban's Hungary, lack a clear ideological mission. Instead, their focus is on maintaining power and control, using whatever means necessary to achieve these ends. This pragmatic approach allows them to adapt to changing circumstances, but it also means that their governance is less predictable and more opportunistic.

Pragmatic anti-EU sentiments

While Viktor Orban has positioned himself as a staunch critic of the European Union, labeling him as anti-EU may be an oversimplification of his political strategy. His admiration for Putin's Russia indeed suggests a departure from European norms. However, this does not necessarily equate to a desire to dismantle the European Union. Instead, it indicates a strategic repositioning, leveraging Hungary's membership to serve his objectives.

Despite Orban's admiration for Russia's resistance to EU integration, polling data indicates that a substantial majority of Hungarians, including his own supporters, view EU membership as beneficial. According to a study published by ZRI Zavecz Research this May, 77 percent of Hungarians believe that EU membership is advantageous, with 64 percent of Orban voters sharing this sentiment. Widespread support for the European Union among the Hungarian electorate is a crucial factor that Orban cannot afford to ignore if he intends to maintain his political dominance.

Moreover, Hungary is the third-largest net benefactor of the EU, receiving substantial financial support from the bloc. Despite Orban's vocal criticism of EU policies, Hungary's economy is significantly bolstered by its funds, which have sometimes exceeded 4 percent of the country's GDP. The EU's financial leverage has also been a tool to extract concessions from his government, particularly concerning rule-of-law provisions. While Orban may rail against EU interference, he must be acutely aware that Hungary's economic well-being is closely tied to its position.

In fact, Orban himself has articulated a vision of reforming rather than abandoning the European project. His statement that Hungary's plan is "not to leave the EU" but "to conquer it" reflects his strategy of influencing the Union from within. Unlike Putin's, his approach suggests that anti-EU posturing is more about shaping the Union to fit his ideological framework than an outright rejection. In this light, Orban's approach to the EU can again be seen as a pragmatic one, where he challenges certain aspects of the union to bolster his political power while ensuring that Hungary continues to reap the economic benefits of membership.

Geopolitics: no more balancing

Hungary's relationship with Russia has often been described as a strategic balancing act. By maintaining close ties with Moscow, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sought to elevate Hungary's role on the European stage, positioning the country as a bridge between East and West. This approach has also been interpreted as a way to gain leverage within the European Union, subtly signaling that it has alternatives to Western alliances.

However, since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, Orban's balancing act has increasingly turned into what many see as unconditional support for Russia. This shift has not only isolated Hungary within the EU but has also raised questions about the rationale behind Budapest's approach. Despite his often defiant rhetoric, Viktor Orban's actions, such as hijacking EU summits or opposing aid packages for Ukraine, have largely failed to yield significant concessions. Instead, they have left Hungary diplomatically isolated and weakened the country's strategic position.

Ultimately, Orban's latest Russia strategy seems to be backfiring, as Hungary's value to both Russia and the European Union diminishes. In the current geopolitical climate, the Prime Minister's approach is increasingly difficult to justify. As Geza Jeszenszky, a former Hungarian foreign minister warned four days before the war in Ukraine began, sitting on the fence in diplomacy can lead to falling off entirely. And this is exactly what happened in the past few months.

Conclusion: need for further inquiry

Viktor Orban's unwavering support for Russia has perplexed both allies and critics alike, leaving many to question the underlying reasons behind his increasingly controversial stance. Traditional explanations such as Hungary's energy dependence, economic interests, ideological shifts, and geopolitics, while once plausible, now fall short of fully accounting for his actions. Orban's recent decisions have not only jeopardized Hungary's economic stability, security, and sovereignty but have also put his own political future at risk.

While there are numerous alternative explanations regarding Viktor Orban's relationship with Vladimir Putin and Russia—ranging from historical factors, potential blackmail, friendship, and financial transactions benefiting government-aligned entrepreneurs to Orban being a "useful idiot" and some more elaborate conspiracy theories—there remains a significant need for further investigation.

The urgency for deeper inquiry is more pressing than ever. It is critical that both investigative journalists and scholars intensify their efforts to uncover the true motivations behind Orban's actions. Understanding the underlying causes of his allegiance to Russia is crucial, not just for Hungary's future, but for the broader European community that faces the ripple effects of these decisions. Viktor Orban's relationship with Vladimir Putin has far-reaching implications for the European Union and NATO as well.

Kornel Klopfstein-Laszlo is a New York-based Hungarian journalist, policy analyst, and human rights advocate. He is the co-founder of Print-it-Yourself, a citizen journalism project combating Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's control over the media. In 2020, Klopfstein joined Open Society Foundations. He also serves as a board member of eDemokracia, a Central European think tank that promotes press freedom, access to information, and participatory democracy.