Doha Strike on Hamas Negotiators Threatens Gaza Ceasefire and Regional Stability
Israeli attack in Qatar undermines U.S.-backed ceasefire talks, fuels regional fallout and strains relations with Doha — raising fears of stronger hardliners and wider instability.
By Real contentPublished 4 months ago • 3 min read
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The Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar has dangerously escalated tensions in the region, and analysts believe it has not only undermined ceasefire efforts in Gaza but also dimmed prospects for any new U.S.-led alliances in the Middle East.
Israel has stated that the strike on a complex in central Doha was “accurate.” The residential compound was used by Hamas’s negotiating team.
Ceasefire Prospects Fade
Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said the attack on Hamas’s negotiating team has dealt a severe blow to U.S.-backed talks on a ceasefire in Gaza.
Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are currently mediating between Hamas and Israel to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages.
According to Lovatt, “Killing the very negotiators you are in talks with makes reaching any agreement far less likely.”
Six Hamas-linked individuals were killed in the Israeli strike in Doha, including the son and office manager of Hamas leader Khalil Al-Hayya. However, Hamas’s senior leadership survived.
Put simply, Israel targeted Hamas’s negotiating team at the very moment they were discussing U.S.-proposed ceasefire terms.
Hamas leaders have lived in Qatar for years, but this was the first time Israel targeted them there.
Still, Lovatt noted, “This tactic is not new in the region.”
He recalled, “Last year, Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh while he was engaged in ceasefire talks.”
He argued that the aim is to derail ceasefire efforts. “What the Israeli government says is irrelevant—its actions make it clear it has no interest in any ceasefire agreement.”
Lovatt added that such Israeli measures will alter Hamas’s internal structure, making diplomacy even more difficult.
“Israel is clearly weakening moderate figures by assassinating them, which only strengthens the hardliners who argue that Israel understands nothing but violence, not diplomacy.”
In the past, Israel has also targeted Hamas leaders in Lebanon and Syria.
Could the Doha Strike Have Effects Beyond Gaza?
Experts warn that the Hamas strike in Doha on Tuesday could have repercussions far beyond Gaza.
They note that Qatar is a key U.S. ally and has acted as a mediator between Hamas and Israel for two years. An attack inside the country sets an unprecedented example.
Lovatt remarked, “This isn’t the first Arab capital Israel has bombed, but it is the capital of a U.S. ally.”
“Qatar is not Tehran, not Beirut. It hosts a major U.S. airbase and has heavy Western investment.”
During a press briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Israel had informed the Trump administration of the strike. But it remains unclear whether the notification came before or during the attack.
She echoed President Trump’s remark that the Israeli strike in Doha “brought no benefit to either Israeli or American objectives.”
However, Dr. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program argued that the strike undermined Qatar’s security and exposed weaknesses in regional alliances.
She added, “The possibility that the U.S. may have approved the attack on Hamas leadership will certainly affect bilateral ties with Qatar.”
“Qatar will not sever its relations with Washington over this, but it has been thrown into uncertainty.”
Vakil stressed that the Israeli strike shattered several long-standing assumptions:
“It was assumed that allies don’t attack each other, nor endorse such strikes. The fact that the U.S. may have supported a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty will have implications across the Middle East.”
Dr. H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute agreed.
He said states in Doha and across the region will now question “whether U.S. security guarantees have any real meaning, given Israel’s freedom to act in this way.”
Still, Vakil pointed out that Qatar’s security ultimately depends entirely on the U.S., underscoring the limits of Qatar’s influence.
She added, “For years it was assumed Israel would not target Hamas leadership in Qatar for the sake of diplomacy—but Israel has now shattered that notion and exploited the political and military moment.”
According to Vakil, whether Trump approved the attack or not can be debated, but what is clear is that Washington does not view it as a diplomatic failure. Instead, it sees the strike as part of a broader strategic approach.
“Agreements aren’t made solely at the negotiating table—you can force people to change their positions. Clearly, the U.S. president is trying to influence negotiations through other means.”
Grave Consequences for the Region
Both Dr. Vakil and Hugh Lovatt warned that the Israeli strike in Doha could have far more serious regional consequences.
Arab officials worry that Israel is becoming not only increasingly aggressive but destabilizing in a manner largely unchecked by either the U.S. or Europe.
Vakil added, “We are entering a new world, a new region, a new era with new rules. Old assumptions are collapsing.”
Both analysts argued that these concerns will drive regional powers to further expand their military capabilities.
In Lovatt’s view, the biggest casualty of current events may not be Israel or Palestine, but rather the credibility of the West itself.
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