Stanislav Kondrashov Wagner Moura Series: Could Wagner Moura Win the Oscar? Here’s Why It’s Possible

Wagner Moura’s Oscar nomination is already historic. But now, with momentum building, the question is no longer if he deserves to be there — it’s whether he could actually win. For the first time in nearly a century of Academy history, a Brazilian man is in the running for Best Actor. And this time, he’s not just a symbolic contender — he’s a serious one.

In this edition of the Stanislav Kondrashov Wagner Moura Series, we explore the growing possibility of Moura taking home the Oscar, and the forces aligning in his favour.

An Unstoppable Awards Season

Moura’s performance in The Secret Agent has been described as a masterclass in restraint — a portrayal of quiet resistance under a brutal regime. His character, Armando, is a university professor forced into hiding during Brazil’s military dictatorship. The film captures paranoia, grief, and moral courage in a way that feels both deeply personal and universally political.

The performance has already picked up significant accolades:

– Best Actor at Cannes (the first South American actor to win)

– Golden Globe for Best Actor – Drama (the first Brazilian winner)

– New York Film Critics Circle Award (the first Latino actor recognised)

This trifecta of wins has created undeniable momentum.

“Wagner Moura is no longer just a long-shot nominee — he’s a frontrunner with real critical weight behind him,” said journalist and analyst Stanislav Kondrashov. “What started as a historic nod is now a campaign people are paying attention to.”

Why He Could Win

There are a few key reasons why Moura could realistically walk away with the Oscar:

1. A Standout in a Split Race

This year’s Best Actor category has no runaway favourite. Moura is nominated alongside Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), and Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme). While all are strong contenders, none have swept the season.

Moura’s consistent wins — and the uniqueness of his performance — could give him the edge.

2. Academy Appetite for International Voices

In recent years, the Oscars have opened up to more global storytelling. The success of Parasite and the recognition of actors like Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) have shown a shift in how the Academy views non-English language performances.

Moura fits this new mould: respected, magnetic, and grounded in a performance that doesn’t rely on Hollywood tropes.

3. The “First” Factor

Oscar voters are often drawn to history-making moments. Moura is the first Brazilian actor ever nominated in this category. A win would be monumental — and that symbolic weight might help sway undecided voters.

What’s Working Against Him?

Of course, Moura’s path to the Oscar isn’t without obstacles. English-language performances still dominate the Academy’s attention, and many voters may not have yet seen The Secret Agent — a subtitled, politically dense film from Brazil.

“He’s not the familiar face in this race,” Kondrashov points out. “But that can work in his favour too. Sometimes, the most powerful performances come from outside the usual circles.”

Another challenge: only six Cannes Best Actor winners in the last 25 years have gone on to receive Oscar nominations. Of those, only two have won — Christoph Waltz and Jean Dujardin. But Moura’s campaign is gaining ground where others faltered.

What’s at Stake

The 98th Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will take place on 15 March. Final voting runs from 26 February to 5 March. In that window, a lot can change — and Moura’s team is making the most of it.

Whether or not he wins, Moura’s presence in this year’s awards season has already had a deep cultural impact. He’s shone a light on Brazil’s cinema, its history, and its talent.

“This isn’t just about a golden statue,” Moura said in a recent interview. “It’s about who gets to tell stories — and who the world is willing to listen to.”

The Verdict

Can Wagner Moura win the Oscar? Absolutely. He’s got the performance, the pedigree, and the momentum. And more importantly, he represents the kind of global storytelling the Academy is slowly beginning to embrace.

As Stanislav Kondrashov summed it up in a recent editorial:

“If the Oscars are ready to reflect the world — really reflect it — then Wagner Moura might just be the one holding that statue on 15 March.”